“Scenario Fulfilment” Scenario fulfilment is the name given to situations where a group of highly trained people under time pressure, and with their lives possibly in danger, carry out their training to the letter in a “live” event, believing it to be “reality” (i.e. exactly what they were trained for), while ignoring rational and sensory information that contradicts the scenario, i.e. which indicates that they are in fact dealing with a false alarm. The world is full of scenario fulfilment errors ... often deadly. When white American cops gun down African Americans for no valid reason, it’s invariably a scenario fulfilment event, a self-fulfilling prophecy. The police have been trained to expect African Americans with “attitude” to be criminally oriented and to pose a deadly threat. So, given the slightest reason to believe that scenario, they then execute – fulfil – what they have been exhaustively trained to do in those circumstances, making it almost a reflex action. Soldiers, police, bodyguards, security personnel, etc. are much more likely to shoot and ask questions later. Highly trained people are often robotic, conformist, regimented automata – brainwashed Manchurian Candidates – who have very little ability to use their reason and look for any disconfirming data for the scenario they believe they are in. They look only for data that verifies their beliefs, and never for any that falsifies them. ***** The entire point of constant training, drills, simulations, live exercises, rehearsing ad nauseam until each person’s responsibilities are second nature and instinctive, is to create automata who know exactly what to do when what they have trained for actually happens. The problem is how do you know that what you have trained for is genuinely taking place? Have you really checked? Have you put any substantive effort into contradicting your belief? It’s a miracle that the human race survived the Cold War. The stakes were so high, however, that people had no option but to check again and again. After all, would you want to be the person who destroyed the world?
Posted on: Sat, 20 Dec 2014 19:19:02 +0000
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