See these two images? This is the 500mb pattern off of the GFS and European ensemble means, valid next Wednesday, October 8th. While there are definitely differences in both, I want to point out the Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule to you. Check this out... See the blues and purples in the Bering Sea? That is a deep trough forecast to develop by early next week. That is ultimately going to play a huge role in our weather by the last week in October. This is panning out a few days later than I was previously thinking, but nonetheless, will result in a period of very cold weather the last week in October. Now, do you see the orange shades in eastern Asia and the Sea of Japan? That is indicative of a zonal, warm, flow developing by Wednesday next week. If you will remember, last week, I stated we would see a period of well-above average temps between October 14-16. Well, if you apply the Typhoon Rule to this setup, we can expect a warm-up between the 14th to the 17th, lining up almost perfectly with my call from last week. We will see how all of this pans out, but I believe the two periods to watch are the 14th to the 16th and the 26th through the 30th. The first being a warm-up, and the second being a cool-down.
Posted on: Wed, 01 Oct 2014 02:45:39 +0000
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