So, Congress continues to have an impasse even after claiming a deal was near. My non-partisan assessment: there will be *no* long-term solution from this Congress. At all. Most likely, they will eventually agree on a temporary measure that will push the problems down the road a few months. They will then argue unproductively until that time and give the can another kick, and another, and another until after the mid-term elections. Much less likely, the stalemate will continue indefinitely even well after financial default, leading to the eventual ruin of the country if not resolved. My reasoning is this: the President and the Senate have repeatedly made it clear that they will not consider *anything* but a proposal that funds everything including Obamacare, alters nothing, lifts the credit ceiling, and lifts the sequester. They call this a clean bill. Anything else will be rejected as a ransom demand. The House, however, has many members who believe Obamacare will be as economically disastrous as a full financial default (rightly or wrongly), so they simply *cannot* allow it to be funded without getting certain concessions to mitigate the perceived danger. Such a bill would be regarded by the House as unconditional surrender and a betrayal of their constituents and the nation. Asking either the Senate or the House to give ground is asking them to abandon their self-proclaimed principles, so a clean bill or unconditional surrender is simply *not* going to happen and a bill that alters or defunds Obamacare is also simply *not* going to happen. Since neither side really wants the devastation of a full default (I hope), the only option left is to kick the can. It is an option that is doomed to fail eventually due to financial entropy if nothing else, but it is the only thing they know how to do anymore and should at least carry the nation to the mid-term elections when the balance of power in Congress may shift, making a long-term deal more viable. In the mean time, deep problems will continue to fester. I hope Im wrong. The country would be a lot better off if we could get this all resolved for the long-haul tomorrow, but I really dont think it will happen.
Posted on: Wed, 16 Oct 2013 03:08:02 +0000
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