So if I understand the news correctly: 1. Now that FIFA is over, the rest of the world has noticed something odd going on in Israel/Gaza. We though it was the usual soccer riots, remarked 1 EU official. But apparently they werent just pissed about the Brazil game. 2. Hamas wants prisoner releases as a condition for cease fire. OK. Sure. And I would like a pony. More seriously, Hamas understands that it can demand further concessions for cease fire even if it is losing without losing popular support. In fact, in defiance of what we would consider normal military logic, Hamas can demand concessions for a ceasefire precisely *because* they are losing. Hamas support is pegged to its disproportionate casualty loss. The limiting factor is that at some point they exhaust the patience of the broader Gaza population. And again, they have a problem with their lack of patrons. 3. Meanwhile, Israel seems to be of two minds. One group that thinks they can reinvade Gaza and root out Hamas. I think this is not very practical for a number of reasons. Hamas has significant resources in exile. In the absence of a real transition plan, Hamas is likely to be replaced by other militants. And, most significantly, Israel lacks the capacity to maintain a lengthy occupation. One of the lessons of 02-05 is that long-term occupation is extremely resource draining and makes you very unpopular in the world at large. And the problem doesnt go away. Because Hamas are just a symptom of the broader problem -- that you have a large population of Palestinians who are not going back to the pre-1993 administration. OTOH, you have the side that would like to get this over with so everyone can get back with their lives. Thats fine, but there is no realistic thought on how to get out of having the same cycle every 12-24 months. *sigh*
Posted on: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 17:50:37 +0000
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