Solar Activity-Full. just in 8;35pm .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 1861 (S07W79, Eki/beta-gamma) and 1875 (N07E60, Dao/beta-gamma) both produced numerous C-class flares this period, the largest of which was a C8/Sf at 18/1526 UTC from Region 1861. Region 1861 and 1875 remain the most magnetically complex regions on the disk, both containing beta-gamma magnetic configurations. New Region 1877 (S11E75, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period and likely contains additional spots and structure that have yet to rotate into view on the eastern limb. A CME associated with a filament eruption centered near N30E30 was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery beginning at 18/0742 UTC, but initial analysis indicates that this event will not be Earth-directed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity on day one (19 Oct) with Regions 1861 or 1875 being the likely source. As Region 1861 rotates off the western limb, solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flare activity on days two and three (20 - 21 Oct) with Region 1875 being the likely source. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels, reaching a peak flux value of 3,594 pfu at 18/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the next three days (19 - 21 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (19 - 21 Oct). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from initial values near 410 km/s to end-of-period values near 360 km/s. The total field strength was relatively steady near 4 nT and the Bz component ranged from +3 nT to -2 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) sector throughout the period. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal values for days one and two (19 - 20 Oct), increasing slightly on day three (21 Oct) with CH HSS onset. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels during the past 24 hours. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two (19 - 20 Oct), increasing to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active conditions on day three (21 Oct) due to CH HSS effects.
Posted on: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 00:36:01 +0000
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