Solar Activity-full report as of 7:30 am. .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/Sf flare at 15/0229 UTC from Region 1899 (N06E42, Dko/beta). Slight decay was observed in the smaller trailing spots in Region 1899 and in the intermediate spots of Region 1897 (S21E19, Eac/beta-gamma-delta). Moderate growth was observed in Region 1900 (S19W22, Dac/beta-gamma). Slight growth was observed in newly numbered Region 1901 (S24W50, Cro/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class (R3, Strong) flares for the forecast period (15-17 Nov). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (15-17 Nov). A slight chance exists for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux a geosynchronous orbit to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels for day one (15 Nov) as Region 1890 remains nears the west limb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux values are forecast to be at background levels on days two and three (16-17 Nov). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind was at nominal levels during the period. Solar wind speed ranged from 326 km/s to 405 km/s with the total field between 1 nT and 5 nT. The Bz component was mostly southward ranging from +1 nT to -5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards) through the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels until the first half of day 2 (16 Nov) when a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase to near 600 km/s along with initial enhancements in the total field. Coronal hole effects are expected to persist through day 3 (17 Nov). Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (15 Nov). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (16 Nov) with the onset of CH HSS effects. Quiet to active levels are expected on day 3 (17 Nov) as CH HSS effects persist.
Posted on: Fri, 15 Nov 2013 21:44:19 +0000
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