South Central Texas Partners... ...HEADLINE...Slight Risk of Severe Weather late this afternoon and evening...for northern and eastern areas of South Central Texas. ...AREA OF CONCERN...Northern and eastern sections of South Central Texas. This includes areas mainly east of a Jarrell...to Seguin...to Cuero line and includes the counties of Williamson, Travis, Hays, Caldwell, Lee, Bastrop, Guadalupe, Gonzales, DeWitt, Lavaca, and Fayette. This is the area that the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather. This area includes the northern sections of I-35 corridor...and eastern areas of the I-10 corridor. ...IMPACTS...Isolated severe thunderstorms with large damaging hail, in excess of 1 inch in diameter. Damaging winds in excess of 58 mph are also possible but is less of a threat. ...TIMING...3 PM through 9 PM. As with most severe weather...the late afternoon and evening hours will see the highest risk. I-35 threat would be early in the period...with the I-10 threat over the southeast areas later toward evening. The overall threat will spread east through the day and end across the west as winds shift to the west. There will be some lingering storm threats over the SE counties (DeWitt, Lavaca) during the late evening hours beyond 9 pm. ...CONFIDENCE...Low. Like the event last week...a dryline will be the primary trigger as it pushes into our area later this afternoon. Confidence is high that areas well to our northeast near the ARKLATEX will have plenty of severe weather later today. South Central Texas will be on the far western and southern edge of all this activity. For that reason overall confidence is low. ...DISCUSSION...a similar situation to last week...an upper level storm system and a surface dry line approaching from the west will help trigger thunderstorms across portions of Texas. Storms are expected to increase later this afternoon as a dry line pushes into a very moist and unstable airmass across central and east Texas. Warm air aloft is creating a cap or lid on the atmosphere here in South Central Texas which will keep most areas from getting any storm activity. However, where this cap is broken, maybe over the far north and eastern sections later today, any storm that does form may quickly become severe. For that reason the Storm Prediction Center has placed the northern and eastern areas of South Central Texas under a Slight risk of severe storms later this afternoon and evening. Overall the chances of seeing this activity is very low...but if it occurs, damaging severe hail may occur under the strongest storms. You can see the latest forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories by going to the Austin-San Antonio National Weather Service website at weather.gov/austin Paul Yura National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
Posted on: Thu, 03 Apr 2014 18:41:16 +0000
Trending Topics
© 2015