Sport: Basketball (5* NBA Play of the Day) Market: Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards Pick: Bulls +5 ½ points Odds: $1.89 Agency: Betfair Wager: 5 Units Game Time: 11:00am AEDT Analysis: The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They not only beat the defending champion Miami Heat last time out, they destroyed them 114-97. They are certainly feeling good about themselves heading into this game with Chicago tonight. The Wizards are primed for a huge letdown following that win. Adding to the letdown factor is the fact that Washington beat Chicago 102-88 on the road on January 13 just five days ago. We really believe the Wizards wont even show up tonight. The Bulls, meanwhile, will be out for revenge from that loss earlier this week. This team has been playing great, but it continues to get disrespected. The Bulls have won six of their last seven games overall behind the most underrated head coach in the business in Tom Thibodeau. Plays against favourites (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 Friday games. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Friday game. The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Note we’re getting an extra point on the spread at Betfair. Take the Bulls +5 ½ points in this one for a massive 5 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Pick: Suns +1 ½ points Odds: $2.04 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 1:00pm AEDT Analysis: The Phoenix Suns are showing tremendous value as a home underdog to the Dallas Mavericks Friday. They are a home underdog and really should not be. But just like they have been all season, this team is getting overlooked. Indeed, Phoenix is 22-16 straight up on the year and a very healthy 25-12 ATS. This team has the best ATS mark in the entire league, which is the ultimate sign that a team is undervalued. Dallas is coming off a big loss at the Los Angeles Clippers by a final of 127-129, and it will suffer a hangover off that defeat. Thats especially the case considering it has a huge game against Portland on deck tomorrow night. It will be looking ahead to that contest as well. Phoenix is 13-5 straight up at home this season. Plays on home underdog (Phoenix) off a home win, in January games are 54-20 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 17-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Phoenix is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on 1 days rest. The Suns are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. Take the Suns +1 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: Grizzlies -5 ½ points Odds: $1.91 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 12:10 AEDT Analysis: The Memphis Grizzlies host the Sacramento Kings on Friday night. Memphis is coming off an 82-77 win over Milwaukee, while Sacramento beat Minnesota their last time out, 111-108. We were very active in backing the Grizzlies during their great run a year ago and the team seems poised to go on a great run this season which has us ready to get behind them. The impact the return of Marc Gasol has had on the Grizzlies is incredibly evident by just looking at the scores of their last five games. In their last two games, the Grizzlies have surrendered an average of 82.0 points, after surrendering an average of 103.3 in their previous three. Thats 21.3 points per game fewer with Gasol in the lineup. Now the team gets a Sacramento squad that theyve owned in recent years. Memphis has won nine of the last 10 in the series, including an 11-point win in Sacramento in the lone meeting this season. The Kings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Memphis. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Take the Grizzlies -5 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: Total UNDER 199 ½ points Odds: $1.84 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 Units Game Time: Midday AEDT Analysis: The total has been set far too high in this one, because of the Kings ability to score – against lacking defences. The UNDER has hit in 3 of the last 4 match ups between these two sides and this is the highest total set in any of those games. With Marc Gasol back, the Grizzlies are a completely different team. Have a look at the 3 games prior to Gasol returning to the lineup – scores of 108,104 and 108 at an average of 106.66 points for and 110, 99, 101 at an average of 103.33 points against. In the two games since Gasol has been back, the Grizzlies have scored 90 and 82 points and allowed just 87 and 77 points against. In other words – the Grizzlies of old. The bookies have obviously been slow to adjust here, as we had this one set at 189 points. The grizzlies wont want to turn this one into a run and gun shoot out, quite the opposite. They’ll slow it down and grind away with superior defence and frustrate the young Kings side. Even including that period without Gasol, the Grizzlies are still the 6th best defensive unit in the NBA. One of the Kings biggest weaknesses (apart from their overall defence ranked 28th in the NBA) is their 3 point defence, allowing the third most in the league at 8.8 per game. That wont matter here though as the Grizzlies are last in the league, making a paltry 5 triples per game. This is the highest total set in the match up between these two teams in 7 of their last 9 match ups. Note the official total has been set at 197 but we’re getting an extra 2 ½ points with Betfair. Take the UNDER 199 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets Pick: Nuggets -6 ½ points Odds: $1.91 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 1:10pm AEDT Analysis: The Denver Nuggets have a terrific home court advantage. Playing in elevation is no fun, especially for a team that is playing its third road game in four days. That’s exactly the spot that the Cleveland Cavaliers are in for this game. Cleveland played at Los Angeles against the Lakers late Tuesday before traveling to Portland and playing the Blazers on Wednesday night. After one day off they’ll be in Denver against the recently improved Nuggets. Cleveland played well against Portland on Wednesday, but fell apart in the last two minutes and lost by 12. The way they lost that game can’t help their motivational preparedness for this game either. Denver is coming off an excellent win at Golden State. That was a game that both teams had circled, and the Nuggets showed a ton of grit in that win. Denver has underperformed for much of the season, but it seems the Nuggets are finally hitting stride. Cleveland should be gassed after a tough road trip, and the Nuggets carry a bunch of momentum into this one. Luol Deng helps the Cavs, but not as much as some people think he does. The Nuggets are still the far more talented team. Take the Nuggets -6 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: Total UNDER 211 ½ points Odds: $1.88 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 11:00am AEDT Analysis: The Miami Heat (27-11) is coming off a 98-114 loss at Washington. LeBron James had 25 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists. Chris Bosh scored 26 points, and James had 25 for the Heat, who had been off since last Friday. The Philadelphia 76ers (13-25) comes off a 95-92 win at home over Charlotte. Spencer Hawes had 17 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists for the Sixers. Evan Turner scored 23 points and Carter-Williams had 20. The media has been accusing the Heat of “coasting” during a three game losing streak and we think whatever that is going with the Heat here will likely end. The Heat success has started on the defensive end the past few seasons and we expect that will help us to get the lower number in this matchup. Five the last eight games between these two teams saw the lower number fall and three of the last five meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia has also seen a lower score. The 76ers have been held to 95 points or less in four of its’ last five games while the Heat have not scored more than the century mark in three straight games. With the numbers so high there is great value in thinking the lower number will fall. Take the UNDER 211 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Portland Trailblazers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: Spurs -4 ½ points Odds: $1.84 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 12:30pm AEDT Analysis: The Portland Trailblazers (29-9) comes off a 108-96 win at home over Cleveland. LaMarcus Aldridge finished with 32 points and 18 rebounds and while Damian Lillard added 28 points for the Blazers who have won three straight. The San Antonio Spurs (31-8) come off a 109- 105 win at home over Utah. Tony Parker had 25 points and nine assists and San Antonio escaped a late rally to continue a nice win streak. The Spurs have won six in a row and we expect them to keep it going here against another one of West power house teams this season. The Spurs come in revenge minded after a 105-115 loss in Portland earlier this season and a 136-106 blowout loss in this very building the last time these two took to the court in Texas. The Spurs have won two the last three meetings between these two teams SU and ATS when it has been held in San Antonio. Note that the Spurs are 8-2 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in a game. The Trailblazers are just 7-12 ATS when facing a team that scores more than 99 points per game. Take the Spurs to get some revenge with a nice win here. Take the Spurs -4 ½ points in this one for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Portland Trailblazers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: Total UNDER 213 ½ points Odds: $1.88 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 12:30pm AEDT Analysis: The Portland Trailblazers (29-9) comes off a 108-96 win at home over Cleveland. LaMarcus Aldridge finished with 32 points and 18 rebounds and while Damian Lillard added 28 points for the Blazers who have won three straight. The San Antonio Spurs (31-8) come off a 109- 105 win at home over Utah. Tony Parker had 25 points and nine assists and San Antonio escaped a late rally to continue a nice win streak. While the last two meetings between these teams saw real high numbers we feel this game will be different and we are getting a lot of value with a high number. Note that the lower number is a perfect 2-0 in Spurs games where the total number is equal to or greater than 210. After Spurs games where the team scored 105 or more points, the following game has hit in 10 of 18. The Spurs are an excellent defensive team – when they want to be and they usually save their best efforts for the better teams. The Spurs wont want to let the new kid on the Western Conference block dictate the play here and will slow it down to suit their game. Take the UNDER 213 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Los Angeles Clippers @ New York Knicks Pick: Superline: Knicks +9 ½ points & Total OVER 194 ½ points Odds: $1.91 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:00am AEDT Analysis: We give the Knicks a shot here in this one. The Clippers just aren’t the same team without CP3 on both ends of the court and have been mediocre on the road. Both of these teams have been on a scoring binge recently. The Clippers come into this matchup averaging 111.2 points per game over their last five games, while New York has averaged 97.8 points per game over their last five games. Both of those figures are big increases over their overall scoring averages this season. What makes the over such an easy call in this matchup is not just the fact that these teams are scoring a lot of points recently, but also the fact that defensively they seem to be getting soft. The Clippers have surrendered 100.4 points per game on the road this season, and over their last five games that number has jumped up to 103.2 points per game. It is a similar story for the Knicks who are allowing 101 points per game over their last five games. This will only be the second road game for the Clippers since Chris Paul went down a couple weeks ago, and their first outing in that situation was a disastrous 24-point loss in San Antonio. Of course the Knicks aren’t the Spurs, but this line tells us the oddsmakers are probably overvaluing the Clips a bit. They are a very mediocre team on the road, and the Knicks have been playing much better basketball lately, especially on the defensive end, despite last night’s blowout loss to the Pacers – but, hey, the Pacers are the best team in the NBA and were at home. The Clippers are not the Pacers. The Clippers have won four straight, but it is safe to say this will be a tougher matchup than any of those games, and we just feel that the Knicks can keep this one close with a chance to win late in the game. With the Superline, we’re getting the Knicks to stay within double figures and the a moderate Total that on recent form should hit OVERs. Take the Superline here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Charlotte Bobcats @ Orlando Magic Pick: Total UNDER 192 ½ points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:00am AEDT Analysis: Both these teams are struggling – badly. The Bobcats are 2-9 in their last 11 games and 1-7 in their last 8 games on the road. The Magic are faring much better. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games and 2-8 in their last 10 games. So how do we pick a winner? We don’t. We generally find that when teams hit slumps like these two are in, the coaches don’t tell them to go out and score more points, they emphasise defence and not allowing as many points. We would never have thought it in years gone by, but the Bobcats are an elite defensive unit, ranked 4th in the NBA. They are also the third worst scoring team in the NBA – these two stats add up nicely for a 17-22-1 O/U season so far and 5-14-1 on the road. This shows that the Bobcats really focus on defence on the road in order to win games. The Magic are also a good UNDERs team going 17-22 on the season and a strong 6-14 O/U at home. The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Bobcats last 7 games in Orlando. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Magic’s last 6 games. Last time these teams met, the score was 92-83 and we expect a similar game in this one. The UNDER is 2-0-1 in their last 3 match ups, since the Bobcats became a solid defensive team. Take the UNDER 192 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Raptors Win Odds: $1.93 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:00am AEDT Analysis: The Minnesota Timberwolves havent done well at all this year in close games. While the Timberwolves have a talented team, it seems they havent figured out how to close out games. Minnesota is below .500 on the season now, while Toronto comes into this one with a very surprising 19-18 record so far this year. The Raptors are doing it with great defense. On the other side, Minnesota is dead last in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. Toronto has been money at home of late. The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a road win percentage of 40% or worse. A 27-0 angle here. The Raptors are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games against the Wolves and 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. The Wolves are 5-11 in their last 16 road games. We’re getting great value on the SU here. Take the Raptors to win this one for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Utah Jazz @ Detroit Pistons Pick: Total OVER 202 ½ points Odds: $1.88 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:30am AEDT Analysis: The Utah Jazz have discovered how to score again and strangely, it has been without leading scorer Gordon Hayward, who is a GTD for this game. Alec Burks has ben excellent in his absence though and so we aren’t concerned if Hayward misses this one too. In their last 5 games, the Jazz have averaged 107.2 ppg while giving up 105.2 ppg. The Pistons can be a bit hot and cold but have averaged 105 ppg their last 3 and 108 ppg against. The Pistons do like scoring at home though, as they are 13-6 O/U on the season and 28-10 overall. Simply their scoring potential and lack of interest in anything that resembles defence has lead to them becoming an OVERs machine. The total has gone OVER in 11 of the last 14 games between these two sides played in Detroit. The OVER has hit in 4 of the Jazz’s last 6 games on the road, 6 of the last 7 on the road against Detroit and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the Jazz’s last 5 games overall. The total has gone OVER in all 5 of the Pistons last 5 games at home and in 5 of their last 6 overall. Take the OVER 202 ½ points here for 3 units. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Fri, 17 Jan 2014 23:32:26 +0000
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