Sport: NCAAF (5* NCAAF Play of the Day) Market: Idaho @ Florida State Pick: Florida State -57 points Odds: $1.91 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 5 units Game Time: 7:30am AEDT Analysis: Idaho is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS after a 38-59 loss at home to Old Dominion. Taylor Davis finished the game 15-for-29 for 305 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Dezmon Epps had 175 yards receiving and a TD for the Vandals in a losing effort. Florida State continued its tear of FBS with a 56-3 win over Syracuse to move to 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS. Jameis Wintson completed 19-of-21 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns. The Seminoles scored 28 points before the Orange recorded 28 yards of total offense -- and Winston was the star in the rout. If Idaho was unable to shut down Old Dominion, there is little chance of stopping Florida State, which is one of the nations top offensive squads. The Seminoles rank second nationally in scoring (52.7 ppg) and eighth in total offense (521.2 ypg). The spread looks large and is probably a little larger than we are normally comfortable in taking, but Florida State hasn’t allowed more than 3 points in a game in the last two weeks, which realistically means Florida State only needs to score around 65 points to be assured of covering this line. Florida State is 5-1 ATS as the favourite at home and 8-2 as the favourite overall. Lay the points here and don’t over think it. Take Florida State -57 points here for a huge 5 units in our 5* NCAAF Play of the Day. Sport: NCAAF Market: Kentucky @ Georgia Pick: Georgia -23 ½ points Odds: $1.97 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 units Game Time: 11:00am AEDT Analysis: Kentucky is 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS after a 6-22 loss at Vanderbilt. Jalen Whitlow threw four INTs but did rush for 69 yards as the main chain mover the Wildcats Kentucky lost its’ 14 straight game versus SEC opponents. Georgia is 6-4 SU and just 1-8 ATS this season after a 38-43 loss at Auburn. Aaron Murray completed 33-of-49 passes for 415 yards, two TDs and one INT while also rushing for two TD scores in the loss. Todd Gurley rushed for 79 yards and TD and also had 77 yards receiving. The Bulldogs have underperformed for the most part this season but are still a far better team than Kentucky. Georgia is also starting to get some of its injured players back. We expect a big win after a brutal late game loss to Auburn. Remember that Kentucky is arguably the worst team in the SEC this season. They shouldn’t and won’t be in this game in Georgia. Take Georgia -23 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Cincinnati @ Houston Pick: Cincinnati +3 points Odds: $1.83 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 units Game Time: 4:00am AEDT Analysis: Cincinnati comes into this game at 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS after a 52-17 win at Rutgers. Brendon Kay threw for a career-best 405 yards and four touchdowns, Mekale McKay caught three TDs in the win. Shaq Washington had 123 yards receiving and a TD on six receptions as well. Houston is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS after a 13-20 loss at Louisville. John Okorn completed 19-of 35 passes for 121 yards. While other teams like UCF and Louisville have gotten all the headlines in this conference, the Bearcats have gone quietly under the radar at 8-2 on the season. Brandon Kay owns the highest completion percentage on the season and should be effective in this game as it brings in an offense that averages 35 points a game. Houston has lost two in a row but granted they have been close games against tough opponents. A classic sense of offense versus defense but we like the way Kay is playing right now. Take Cincinnati +3 points here for 3 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Oklahoma @ Kansas State Pick: Oklahoma +7 ½ points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 units Game Time: 4:00am AEDT Analysis: Oklahoma is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS after a 48-10 beat down of Iowa State. Trevor Knight replaced the injured Blake Bell and help lead the team a 38-0 run in the second half. Knight was 8-of-14 passing for 61 yards and rushed for 123 yards and one touchdown. Damien Williams added 10 carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns for the Sooners. Kansas State won its fourth in a row to move to 6-4 SU and ATS. The Wildcats won a thriller over TCU 33-31. Jack Cantele sent a 41-yard field goal attempt through the uprights with three seconds remaining to lift the team. Jake Waters finished 10-of-24 passing for 234 yards, two TDs and one INT. The Sooners bounced back nicely after a devastating loss to Baylor a week before and we expect them to continue good football this week. Kansas State looks to have found their groove with four straight wins. Both these teams lost to Baylor and Texas, but the Wildcats were competitive in their setbacks, while Oklahoma was routed. Still, the Sooners are looking from revenge after Kansas State won a 24-19 game last season as the underdog. Look for the Sooners not only to make it close, but have a good shot at the outright win. We’re getting some great value on the alternate line on Bet365 here, getting a full TD start. Take Oklahoma +7 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Hawaii @ Wyoming Pick: Wyoming -6 points Odds: $1.91 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 4 units Game Time: 6:00am AEDT Analysis: Hawaii is 0-10 and 5-5 ATS after a 21-28 OT loss at San Diego State. John Schroeder finished 18-for-36 for 194 yards, two TDs and one INT. Joey Iosefa rushed 37 times for 150 yards and one TD. The Rainbow Warriors actually held the lead late in this game before OT. Wyoming is 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS after getting killed 7-48 at Boise State. The Broncos put the game away early and scored 48 unanswered points after the Cowboys took an early 7-0 lead on their second possession of the game. Neither team is having a great season but its’ pretty obvious who the better side is in this game. Hawaii losing in OT was a back breaker for a team looking to finally get in the win column for the first time this year (and also killing our OVERs in that game too) Expect Wyoming to bounce back at home after getting utterly annihilated at Boise State. Take Wyoming -6 points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Missouri @ Ole Miss Pick: Missouri -2 ½ points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 3 units Game Time: 11:45am AEDT Analysis: The Missouri Tigers sit at 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS and are well rested after a bye week. The Tigers took care of Kentucky 48-17 prior to the bye. Maty Mauk completed 17 of 28 attempts for 203 yards and that included a massive five TD passes. Henry Josey had 113 yards rushing to go with a couple TD scores. Mississippi is 7-2 SU and 6-4 ATS after a 51-21 win over Troy last weekend. Bo Wallace was 17 for 26 for 272 yards and rushed for 66 yards on nine carries for a total of four TDS. Mississippi set a school record for total offense with 751 yards. This is looks to be good matchup on the Saturday Game Day as both teams are playing well and are in the Top 25 currently. Ole Miss has the home field advantage but they are going to be in tough with a Missouri offense that averages of 41.3 points and 492.6 yards per game and is getting their starting QB back in James Franklin. Defensively, Ole Miss has played much better than expected, as it holds foes to just 25.0 points per game but won’t likely do that in this game. This won’t be an easy win for the Tigers but we still expect Missouri to come out on top, covering the short points in the process. Take Missouri -2 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Missouri @ Ole Miss Pick: Total OVER 56 points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 units Game Time: 11:45am AEDT Analysis: The Missouri Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels meet in what should be a great SEC clash. Missouri is still in the national title race if they win out and Mississippi has proven capable of beating big name teams at home this year. The strength of both of these teams is their offense. Missouris glaring weakness is their secondary and we expect Bo Wallace and Mississippi to exploit that. Missouris offense hasnt been stopped by anyone this year when James Franklin is healthy and hell be back for this one. The over is 6-0 in Missouris last 6 road games. The over is 5-0 in Ole Miss last 5 November games. The over is 5-0 in Missouris last 5 road games against a team with a winning record. The over is 12-2 in Ole Miss last 14 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing last game. A 28-2 angle backs this. Take the OVER 56 points here for 3 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Michigan @ Iowa Pick: Iowa -5 ½ points Odds: $1.83 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 5 units Game Time: 4:00am AEDT Analysis: The Iowa Hawkeyes had a week off before this big showdown. Michigan had a brutal triple overtime physical game against Northwestern. In the last 3 weeks, Michigan has played Michigan State, Nebraska, and Northwestern. The Wolverines have to be a bit worn out. They also face Ohio State in the Super Bowl game next weekend. Iowa will be fresh and focused on this game, and we think the Hawkeyes have been the better team this year. Michigan will struggle to move the football here. Look for the Hawkeyes to wear down the Wolverines. The Wolverines are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games.. Take Iowa -5 ½ points here for a big 5 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: East Carolina @ NC State Pick: East Carolina -5 ½ points Odds: $1.90 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 4 units Game Time: 4:30am AEDT Analysis: The battle for North Carolina takes place this Saturday in Raleigh. East Carolina has long been the team that everyone in the state overlooks, but they have been on a mission this year. East Carolina crushed the UNC Tar Heels 55-31 earlier this year, and the Pirates will be motivated to try to knock off another big name program in the state. NC State looks ready to pack it in for the season. The Wolfpack havent been good in any aspect of the game, and they are finding different ways to lose every single week. East Carolina is the much better team, and theyll prove it on the field here. Take East Carolina -5 ½ points in this one for a strong 4 units. Sport: NCAAF (5* NCAAF Total of the Day) Market: UL-Monroe @ South Alabama Pick: Total OVER 56 ½ points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 5 units Game Time: 11:00am AEDT Analysis: The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks offense looked bad most of the year, but that was without star quarterback Kolton Browning. Browning is Mr. Everything for this offense, and he is back and healthy now. They put up 49 points two games ago against Troy. The oddsmakers havent yet caught up to Monroes much better offense with Browning on the field. South Alabamas offense should be able to move it against a Monroe defense that isnt very good against either the run or the pass. The South Alabama defense played pretty well earlier this year, but they have a lot of injuries and are struggling of late. We had this line projected at 63 points, so this one has a ton of value with an extra TD. Take the OVER 56 ½ points in this one for a BIG 5 units in our 5* Total of the Day. Sport: NCAAF Market: UMass @ Central Michigan Pick: Total UNDER 48 points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 4 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The UMass Minutemen have one of the worst offenses in all of college football. UMass has scored more than 19 points only once all year. UMass is averaging a brutally bad 11.7 points per game. That is bad enough to be 123rd in the nation in points per game. Central Michigan’s offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut. The Chippewas are 111th in the nation in points per game at 20 points per contest. They do have Tipton back at running back now, so they’ll be running the ball a little better here, but this offense isn’t explosive at all. A huge key for this game is the weather. The weather at kickoff time is calling for temperatures dropping through the 30’s and wind gusts of 30 miles per hour. There will also be some light snow falling throughout the game. What does this mean? It means lots of running the football and the clock running non-stop throughout this game. We would have liked the under even without the weather factored in, but that is a big boost to the hopes of the under. UMass might not even get to double figures here, and C. Michigan isn’t likely to be able to put a bunch of points up. Take the UNDER 48 points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Colorado State @ Utah State Pick: Utah State -9 ½ points Odds: $1.76 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 5 units Game Time: 7:30am AEDT Analysis: The Utah State Aggies host the Colorado State Rams on Saturday in Week 13 of the college football season. Utah State is coming off a 28-24 win over Nevada-Las Vegas, while Colorado State beat New Mexico their last time out, 66-42. The Utah State Aggies were one of the hottest plays in the nation a year ago, as the team had one of the most impressive seasons in school history in 2012. Things haven’t gone quite as well in 2013, but the team appears to have gotten things together by now, and is certainly in a whole separate class from the Rams. Colorado State hasn’t fared well when taking the step up in class this season, and a rout could be in order in this one. The teams both played New Mexico in recent weeks, with the Aggies holding New Mexico to 10 points, while Colorado State surrendered 42 points. The Aggies are also coming off of a bye week and will have had extra time to prepare for this contest. The Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Take Utah State -9 ½ points here for a big 5 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Oregon @ Arizona Pick: Oregon -19 points Odds: $1.95 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 5 units Game Time: 7:30am AEDT Analysis: The Arizona Wildcats host the Oregon Ducks on Saturday afternoon in Week 13 of the college football season. Arizona is coming off a 24-17 loss to Washington State, while Oregon beat Utah in their last game, 44-21. The Oregon offense hit a speed bump in the form of a Stanford team that seems to have their number two weeks ago, but they’ve blown all other opponents out of the water this season. Arizona meanwhile, is stuck in the mud, dropping each of their last two contests despite playing each of those two games at home. The year has been a disappointment for the Wildcats as they dead with an inconsistent offense thanks in large part to injuries to star running back Ka’Deem Carey. Now they get an Oregon team that simply has their number. Last year’s meeting saw the Ducks just blow out Arizona in a 49-0 drubbing. The Ducks have scored 50.2 points per game in their last five meetings with the Wildcats. Oregon won all five of those games. The Ducks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games. Take Oregon -19 points here for a massive 5 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Texas A&M @ LSU Pick: Total OVER 71 ½ points Odds: $1.83 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 units Game Time: 7:30am AEDT Analysis: The Texas A&M Aggies and LSU Tigers matchup against each other in a huge SEC battle in Baton Rouge Saturday afternoon. There is no doubt that Johnny Manziel is having another special season for the Aggies. Manziel won the Heisman last year, and he has a chance to have another Heisman moment in this game. Manziel is one of those guys that brings his best when the Aggies are playing a top notch opponent. LSU definitely fits the mould, and you better believe that Manziel has been chomping at the bit looking forward to this game. The Texas A&M defense is horrible, and LSU’s offense is far more productive than they have been the past couple years. Cam Cameron has done wonders for Zach Mettenberger. Mettenberger has a couple great receivers on the outside, and it’s hard to imagine Texas A&M ever slowing down this LSU offense. Which team will budge? We don’t expect either defense to be able to come up with many stops at all. The number is set very high for an SEC game, but almost every Texas A&M game has sailed past this posted total. The scoreboard will be lighting up in Baton Rouge. Take the OVER 71 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: NCAAF Market: Baylor @ Oklahoma State Pick: Oklahoma State +10 ½ points Odds: $1.94 Agency: Betfair Wager: 5 units Game Time: Midday AEDT Analysis: Baylor might have one of the most electric offenses in the country, but they dont have enough defense to be favored on the road against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has quietly got better as the season has went along. A lot of people forget it was the Cowboys who were predicted to win the Big 12 coming into the season. Not only do I think they can cover the 10-point spread, but I could easily see them winning this game outright. Baylor hasnt won in Stillwater since 1939. A lot of people also overlook the fact that the Bears have benefited tremendously from having to play just two true road games all season and one of those was against Kansas. The only real road test they have faced all season is Kansas State and they only won that game by 10-points. Oklahoma State is just as good defensively as the Wildcats and in my opinion clearly better offensively. Oklahoma State is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a win over a conference opponent, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after playing their last game on the road and 25-8 ATS in their last 33 after leading scoring at least 37 points in each of their last two games. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed a conference-low 14 touchdowns in seven Big 12 games and is tied with Florida State for the most interceptions (19) in FBS. A big cold front will be invading from the North on Friday. Temps will be near 30 degrees at kickoff and we expect a much closer game than this line would indicate, so we’ll gladly grab the points in this one. Take Oklahoma State +10 ½ points for a big 5 units in this one. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Sat, 23 Nov 2013 11:35:32 +0000
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