Statistical permutations and political reality (part 1) I read with interest the opinions of the respected but equally grandiloquent publisher and political analyst Chief Dele Momodu in his regular column the pendulum where he employed his admittedly awful math skills to proffer his early prediction on the 2015 elections, reaching the conclusion that the presidents bowler hats should be getting ready to vacate Eagle Bay in 2015 if he does not take care. My understanding of the gravamen of the article was that in 2011, General Mohammed Buhari (GMB) performed statistically well because President Jonathan (GEJ) had a good spread scoring 25% or more in 31 States while GMB managed to score 25% or more in ONLY 16 States and yet got a cumulative result of over 12 million votes. This result is impressive because GMB got only 25% of the votes cast in just about half of the states in which GEJ got his votes and yet earned almost exactly half as much votes as GEJ. I will like to point out that Chief Momodu (for whom I have nothing but the highest regards) went out of his way to point out that (like me) he was also a recipient of the distinguished award of F9 in maths. However since he did not say anything about his qualifications in the field of logic, the weakness of his underlying premise led me to believe that he must have also been one of those who made the upper half of the logic class possible. Let us for a moment stand aside from the mathematics and note that elections are a test of popularity within a constitutional framework. By the admission of Chief Momodou, GEJ gained the constitutionally required 25% across 31 states while GMB was only able to do so in 16 states. The call the result anything other than abysmal is absurdity expressed in logic. Chief Momodu was also keen to point out that in most of the states, if not all, the voters who stayed away amounted to 40% or more of the registered voters. The implicit logic which underlined the entire article is that the poor performance of GEJ was going to agitate not only the majority of the 22 million who voted for GEJ in 2011 to the side of GMB and the APC, but also that those who stayed away in 2011 are going to cause crowd control issues at voting centres in 2015 in their quest to sweep GMB and the APC to power. It is in taking this position that I am afraid the chief has been extremely self delusional. And this brings me to the crux of my own position, which is that while the president and the PDP have not taken our breath away over the last 4 years through their stellar performance, the APC have had control of at least 15 states and numerous federal legislative seats and have not shown through their performance in those positions that the deserve the chance to take the helm of the Nigerian state. In fact, I assert that through skillful application of absurdity demonstrated why GEJ is really the only option available to the people of Nigeria. Nigerians are a football loving nation so it is apt to illustrate this position in footballing terms; while GEJ is no Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich or even Chelsea, he is as similar to Arsenal as the APC are to Tottenham or Everton. On their good day, the latter are capable of excellence but as nobody inducts one hit wonders into the hall of fame. Consistent excellence is required before they can claim to be at the level of the PDP and I state my reasons below. 1. The APC is a party made up majorly of people who could not succeed in the PDP – ex VP, ex Govs, Senators, Reps, the occasional LGA Chairman and foot soldiers. The party is therefore not distinguishable from the PDP in respect of the personal character of the members or their ideological disposition. That is not to say that the entire party is made up of PDP rejects, for one I have nothing but the highest esteem for my learned senior Governor Fashola and a good number of APC members who have consistently identified with progressive ideals in all the opposition parties that are now federated in the APC. However democracy is a game of numbers and we are the aggregate of the company we keep. In that light I draw no ideological or character difference between the PDP and the CAN and in the words of a wise man I know, the devil you know… 2. The word Progressive is not just a catchy campaign slogan; it is an idea, a concept about life which is reflected in practice and manifest excellence. As the APC seems keen on monopolising the word in the political lingo of Nigeria, I dare say that it has been all talk no action. With the exception of Gov Fashola and to a significantly lesser extent, Gov Adams (both of whom I give a 70% and 60% respectively), none of the APC governors has shown themselves to be anything other than cashiers dispensing money from Abuja. I am unimpressed by their ideas or their deeds. There is as much progressive ideas in them as there is water in the Kalahari Desert. Again I wish to illustrate this point by reference to the current president of Indonesia, Jokowi who started his political life as the mayor of Jakarta. His steller performance and excellent character propelled him through the heart of the people , the office of Governor and in a triumph which in my opinion exceeds that of Barak Obama in 2008, got a commoner (with suspected Christian leanings) into the presidency of the world’s most populous Islamic nation. Simply put, he earned his position by BEING progressive, NOT TALKING ABOUT progressivism while performing conservatively. With the singular exception of my learned senior the highly distinguished SAN, I find no peer in the APC in the ilk of Jokowi. As Abe Lincoln said, If I take the tail of a dog and call it a leg, it does not therefore make the dog a % legged dog. A tail is a tail and one million angels swearing affidavits attesting that it is a leg will not make it so! Action good sirs, Action! 3. Finally, I wish to address the most fatal flaw in the argument of Chief Momodu. The APC has been so tactically and strategically abysmal in their role as a necessary opposition that they have allowed an otherwise imperfect PDP to emerge from the last four years looking not only progressive but also the most capable custodian of the future of Nigeria. What do I mean? Thank you for that question. Political opposition involves active education and mobilisation of the citizens not only about the poor decisions and performance of the ruling party but also about alternatives and in so doing it must demonstrate organisational ability coupled with the sagacity to connect with the aspirations of the people, excite them and get them desperate to elect you in place of the ruling party. In this the APC scores miserably, focusing on virulent attacks on the PDP through press releases rather than attempting to employ strategies to connect with the people, communicating their difference to the PDP and proposing their party as a credible alternative. A progressive political machine which the APC claims to be will release well constructed media campaigns lasting for weeks across multiple sectors of the media spectrum usually coinciding with well orchestrated events targeting the future leaders and largest voting bloc – the youth especially in higher institutions, young graduates and the millions of unemployed and underemployed graduates who can embrace their message and sweep them to power. Two examples readily come to mind – Obama and the ISIS. As polar opposite as their messages are, the ISIS employed the same strategy of media campaigns and well orchestrated events as Obama to attract people to their side. If ISIS can do it, why can’t the APC do it? The party chose rather to engage in the same old religious, tribalistic and retrogressive name calling politicking that the PDP is simply peerless at. Rather than putting the issues of the day across to the people in a manner that gets the job done, they issue press releases through the overworked Lai Mohammed and send representatives to make noise in the media. In this they failed themselves, the people of Nigeria and most importantly the PDP because every organisation of person at the very minimum aspires to be as good as his best competition. By providing poor competition, the APC deprived the PDP of the opportunity to rise to its best. Ultimately the people of Nigeria are the losers. In conclusion I wish to state that I campaigned amongst my friends and colleagues for General Mohammed Buhari in 2011! And unlike Chief Momodu I didn’t have to meet him to believe that his anti corruption credentials was what we needed at the time. I was disappointed when he lost and I saluted his courage to cry on national TV and declare that his days of running for office are over. In the intervening 31/2 years both I and the General have evolved. He showed what most people has feared – that he had become an ordinary politician whose words had no value and through my continuing studies of economic studies, I came to agree that a war on corruption is by itself no basis to elect someone to office. China is possibly more corrupt than any other nation on earth yet it is the world’s premier economy. It would have been better for GMB to steer an anti corruption crusade through his party and step aside for younger, smarter progressives who have a socio-economic agenda to lead the way. In failing to do so he lost my respect and I have come to believe that electing GMB to power would be a disaster of apocalyptic proportions for Nigeria. In the unlikely event that happens, I will sell all my assets and leave Nigeria because he will be an unmitigated disaster. I will conclude the second part of this series next week. Till then comments are welcome on my blog at optimusminds.blogspot or via email at ig.ultrabix@gmail. You can also talk to me on twitter @360advocat
Posted on: Wed, 05 Nov 2014 09:16:49 +0000
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