Steve signing in at 7:55 AM. Last nights hard freeze warning was well-placed. Temperatures this morning in the Great Valley range from 27° at Old Ford, Brindletown, Table Rock and Hudson to 29° at Hickory and 30.6° at Burke Weather HQ in Valdese. Winds have eased up this morning but they are likely to become gusty again as a northeast flow around a strong high pressure over Nova Scotia sets up a dry cool air wedge over us later today. This wedge is likely to continue into Thursday meaning below normal temperatures are likely to continue for at least another 48 hours if not longer. Skies will be mostly sunny today but with the northeast wind and temperatures in the mid to upper 50s this afternoon, it will feel chilly nonetheless. If you think about it, the sun is as strong now as it is in late August, so this is an abnormally cold air mass for this late in the season. With mostly clear skies tonight temperatures will fall into the low 30s once again, thus another freeze warning is in effect until 9:00 AM Thursday morning. Our only hope is from some clouds to spread westward from developing offshore low pressure late tonight; right now that is a very dim hope so prepare again for freezing or near freezing temperatures. Thursday should be bright and sunny again with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 60s, still a good bit below normal. By Friday we should see a return of temperatures closer to normal and the Easter weekend should feature pleasant weather overall with afternoon highs near 70F and overnight lows in the 40s. Our next chance of rain comes Monday night from a relatively weak frontal system with not much temperature change behind it on Tuesday, when we could see low 70s in the afternoon with partly sunny skies. Today is the third anniversary of the largest tornado outbreak in North Carolina in recent history; 30+ tornados were documented on April 16 2011 affecting many of the larger cities including Raleigh. So far our severe storm season here has been pretty benign. In fact the only part of North Carolina with a fairly active season has been extreme eastern North Carolina and the outer banks. Weve benefited from poor timing and stubborn cool air wedges that have tempered the instability needed to fuel severe thunderstorm and tornados. My concern is that with the magnitude of the troughs moving into our area--our latest this morning is as strong as the troughs this past January and February--favorable timing and warmer temperatures in May could easily set us up for a severe weather episode. I checked the 16-day outlook on the two longest-range models and nothing stands out as far severe storm threats this morning but any forecast beyond seven days is always subject to change. Now, while you have the time, its a good idea to think and prepare for what you would do if threatened with a severe thunderstorm or tornado event. Yes, tornados are pretty rare in McDowell and most of Burke County, but less so in southeastern Caldwell. If you look at history some of western North Carolinas strongest tornados have occurred within striking distance of our three-county area, including the tornado event of May 5, 1989. Check for trees near your homes that may need to come down, make sure to put fresh batteries in your weather radios, make sure you have an up-to-date list of emergency contacts and even supplies, and, above all, make sure you have a plan for what to do if severe weather or floods threaten your community.
Posted on: Wed, 16 Apr 2014 12:25:39 +0000