Steve signing in at 8:01 AM. Weve got a lot to talk about. First, skies are clouding over as a disturbance over Tennessee moves eastward. Temperatures range from around freezing in the favored drainage areas (Morganton/Lenoir Airport and Granite Falls) to 38° at Hickory to 42° at Nebo. Radar out of Morristown TN shows a couple areas of rain heading in our direction but they have seemed to fall apart as they cross the Tennessee line. I wouldnt rule out a sprinkle or two later this morning into the afternoon, especially in the higher elevations, but I wouldnt count on it either. Mainly, we should have cloudy skies today, highs around 50°. Skies clear out tonight and Friday should be a mostly sunny day with highs in the low 50s. Were likely to see some high clouds streaming in Friday afternoon ahead of a low pressure system developing over east central Texas. These clouds lower and thicken Friday night and precipitation moves in Saturday morning. Temperatures Saturday morning should be in the mid to upper 30s along the I-40 corridor. Thus, light rain is a good bet at the onset of this event. However, rain cooled air could drop the temperature, especially from Morganton westward and northward into the lower 30s. We could see a mix of sleet and even a little freezing rain for a few hours after the rain begins. However, this storm system has trended weaker and by mid afternoon, precipitation should be all rain just about everywhere and probably end in the evening. At this point, I dont foresee a major travel hazard but maybe some inconveniences, especially in the higher elevations where frozen precipitation could last a little longer. There is not a lot of cold air behind this system so, while I cant rule out a few mountain snow showers, I dont see them as a factor because cloud tops will probably not be high enough to support snow. Sunday, at this point, looks mostly cloudy but rain free as another system takes shape to our south. Highs should be around 50° again. This system is likely to spill more rain into our area Monday into Monday night. I think this is going to be mainly a rain event for us since temperatures, even at 4500 feet, should stay above freezing well into the West Virginia mountains. This system exits Tuesday morning as another stronger storm system develops over the mid Mississippi Valley. This next system is one well have to watch. The models still differ on some of the details but I think we could be looking at an intense weather event. The main low pressure area shoots up into the Great Lakes area Tuesday night but out ahead of it a frontal system could spin up one or two additional low pressure systems that may cross our area. This time, however, were likely to be on the right, or warmer side of the main storm system. Pressures with this system as it moves into the Great Lakes get as low as those in a Category 2 hurricane. If that happens, it will not be good for us. Rain returns Tuesday evening. Temperatures should be closer to 50° so there is not chance of freezing precipitation at the onset of this event. In fact, I wouldnt be surprised to see temperatures rise overnight Tuesday (Dec 23). And I think its going to be windy also, not only at the surface but aloft, with turning winds. Couple that with some weak atmospheric instability and a potential triple-point low pressure setup and you have a formula for severe thunderstorms. Even though temperatures could stay in the 50s, the atmospheric dynamics are such that heavy rain and low topped thunderstorms with little or no lightning could tap into wind energy aloft and bring us potentially damaging wind gusts and even a tornado or two. And the biggest problem, if the timing holds, is that the peak of this event may occur during the early morning hours of Christmas Eve. This is definitely a system to watch. It is still five to six days away and things could change, but we need to watch this system as it has the potential to produce weather hazards. As the low pressure tracks northward and out of our area, cold air is likely to rush in. This will probably change any remaining rain over to snow in the mountains and I wouldnt rule out a snow shower or two along the I-40 corridor, especially later Wednesday. I could see temperatures falling into the 40s or 30s after reaching the mid to upper 50s around 3 or 4 AM Wednesday morning. By Christmas Day, I think the weather will quiet down somewhat over the I-40 corridor but snow showers could continue over the mountains. Beyond Christmas Day, more unsettled weather is possible into the New Year as colder air tries to move into the lower 48, setting up a battle of air masses that could trigger a series of storm events for the eastern half of the US, including our area.
Posted on: Thu, 18 Dec 2014 13:29:14 +0000
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