Steve signing in at 8:10 AM. Skies are clear across the Great Valley this morning and much of the Blue Ridge. Winds are gusty at the higher elevations. Temperatures 44F at Brindletown and Nebo to 53F at Hickory, with 51.1F reported at Burke Weather HQ in Valdese. Although about 10F cooler than yesterday, today will be a very nice day with sunny skies, generally light winds in the foothills, winds subsiding in the higher elevations and afternoon temperatures around 67 or 68F, pretty normal readings for the first week of April. Clouds increase this evening through the overnight as low pressure develops over the western Gulf of Mexico. Expect Sunday to be a cloudy day, a bit cooler than today with an increasing chance of rain and showers by early to mid afternoon. Temperatures Sunday will probably peak around 60F but once the rain starts, should fall into the low 50s. A cool air wedge should hold our temperatures steady state through Sunday night into Monday in the upper 40s to around 50. Rain could become heavy at times overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the Gulf of Mexico low pressure moves northeastward through the Tennessee Valley. Low pressure strengthens Monday as it moves into western Ohio during the afternoon. A warm front develops to our south and east during the day Monday. It appears that the warm front will be able to scour out the wedge for much of the eastern two-thirds of North Carolina, possibly as far west as the I-77 corridor. At the same time a cold front will approach from the west. It appears that we will remain squeezed in a pocket of wedge-cooled air until the cold front passes through very early Tuesday morning. However, the I-77 corridor is only about 30 to 50 miles east of us. If that wedge were to retreat only a short distance further to the north and west, we would be in trouble Monday evening. To further complicate things, I see some indication of a secondary weak low pressure developing over the Carolinas Monday evening. Why Im pointing all this out is because a retreating wedge boundary or the difference between cooler stable air and warmer, more humid and unstable air could easily be the firing line for severe thunderstorms Monday evening. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center places Charlotte and Gastonia and possibly even Statesville in a Slight Risk area for damaging thunderstorm winds and possibly, isolated tornados. The window of opportunity appears relatively small, say, from 6 PM Monday evening until midnight or shortly thereafter, but we definitely need to follow the weather Monday in case things change. If were going to get springtime severe weather, Mondays setup is a pretty good example for when it might happen. Right now the wedge appears to hold for our area, which is a good thing since rain cooled air will hold any severe thunderstorms at bay but its going to be a close call and a situation well have to watch very carefully. I believe skies will clear out early Tuesday and the rest of the week will bring cool but sunny weather with moderating temperatures possibly reaching the mid 70s by next Friday. There is a chance of frost Thursday morning as temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s along I-40.
Posted on: Sat, 05 Apr 2014 12:35:55 +0000
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