Steve signing in at 8:23 AM. Low clouds and fog around the area this morning will slowly burn off later today as winds turn around from an easterly to a westerly direction. Temperatures in the mid 60s should rise into the mid and upper 70s later today. A disturbance in the vicinity of southern Arkansas is moving eastward and may trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening, especially south of the I-40 corridor. Wind shear at the time may exceed 40 knots, which is high for this time of year, but I dont expect much, if anything, in the way of severe weather. The other factors favoring severe storms, including instability, are not impressive. Isolated showers could continue into the evening but mainly expect clouds and maybe a little fog, temperatures in the 60s. Tuesday promises to be warmer than today and perhaps the warmest day of the next seven with low 80s for highs, partly sunny skies and just the slightest chance of an afternoon storm. There is not a lot of moisture in the atmosphere Tuesday afternoon but with greater instability, any storm that develops may have a better chance of turning severe. Overall coverage, though, should be pretty sparse. For the rest of the week, a trend toward cooler temperatures, especially during the daytime, appears to be shaping up. Highs closer to 80° on Wednesday could drop to the lower 70s by Thursday and Friday as a another wedge-like pattern develops. After Wednesday, I see little if any chance of rain. A brief warm-up this weekend is possible but by next Monday, a cold front may bring us our first real taste of fall weather just in time for the autumnal equinox. As far as the tropics are concerned, Hurricane Edouard is now a Category 2 hurricane in the open Atlantic, but expected to stay clear of any land areas. However Hurricane Odile in the eastern Pacific made landfall on the tip of the Baja California peninsula overnight near Cabo San Lucas. I found one reporting station that hadnt succumbed to power outages about 30 miles northeast of Cabo; peak reported winds were 70 mph sustained, 114 mph in gusts. Most noteworthy, though, is the 21+ inches of rain that fell in the past 24 hours. Warnings and watches extend nearly the entire length of the Peninsula to within 100 miles of the US border and Arizona. Odile or its remnant moisture is likely to trigger excessive rains into the desert Southwest again in areas that have already had serious flooding problems from Hurricane Norbert. I will watch to see what happens to that moisture as it is drawn eastward by the jet stream later this week into early next as it may eventually impact weather in the east or southeastern US.
Posted on: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 12:43:54 +0000
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