***Storm Update*** The storm is wrapping up from West to East this morning as the low begins to wrap around moisture and move away from the area. Ill be exiting storm mode this afternoon. Now, I will be the first to admit that my forecast was a COMPLETE BUST. Almost every location west of NYC on my map got less than 50% of what was expected. Many areas around the Philly metro area received very little as well. I blew the call, and so did everyone else - changing or lowering your original call is not nailing it either. No one correctly predicted the storm, plain and simple. The setup (from a meteorological standpoint) was as close to perfect as you can get in January – A cold air source, a strong low pressure disturbance bombing offshore on a perfect track, temporary blocking, and a negative-tilted trough. Everything looked great even through last night when I posted the Euro map from a few days ago. However, right after I fell asleep, thats when things fell apart rapidly. The 500mb low that everyone expected to close off around DE took too long (only about 2-3 hours off) and closed off closer to Long Island leading to snow totals being shifted farther to the east. To add insult to injury, the norlun trough feature that set up in Central PA only hurt our totals even more. Since that band of snow took a very long time to die out, it lead to sinking air over our area (between the two bands of snow). When you have such a dynamic storm like this, physics tells us that if there is sinking air, there must be rising air as well. The areas of rising air (in the snow bands) were outperformed by the areas of sinking air (the rip-off zone), which ultimately led to a halt of the western expansion of precip from NYC to Philly. Its just as frustrating for me as it is for all of you considering the countless hours of time and effort I put into this one, but I ultimately failed. Yes we got snow, but nowhere close to the amounts that were expected. So this not just my Im sorry post, but its also my thank you post. Regardless of the outcome, I want to thank EACH AND EVERYONE of my fans for being so loyal and sticking with me even when I went down swinging. I didnt hype this in the slightest, it wasnt sensationalized either. It was the right call from a meteorological point of view but in the end, mother nature cant be beat. This one will definitely leave a mark on me, but I will continue to provide all of you with the best and accurate forecasts in the area!
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 15:25:42 +0000
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