Super Typhoon Hagupit (currently located in the Western Pacific Ocean) continues its astounding rate of intensification and is now tied for the strongest storm in 2014. It is well on its way to becoming the worlds strongest storm to ever be recorded (perhaps matching or surpassing Super Typhoon Haiyan that, coincidentally struck the same area just over a year ago). There is still a 24-36 hour window period where preparations to protect life and property can still be made across the central Philippines. I expect landfall late Saturday evening/early Sunday morning local time. However, the outer bands of this monstrous storm can already be seen moving across the island nation. It became a Super Typhoon this afternoon with winds of 240 kph (150 mph) and is now up to 285 kph (180 mph) – the equivalent of a strong category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. This intensity ties it with Super Typhoon Vongfong and Super Typhoon Nuri as the strongest storms of the year. Once a storm is this strong it is hard to predict intensity fluctuations, however, the forecast is for the storm to have sustained wind of 315 kph in 24 hours. This is the same intensity as Super Typhoon Haiyan at its peak last year. Regardless, this is an extremely strong and dangerous storm. The track continues to have some uncertainties, but a landfall in the Philippines is looking very likely. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has the storm nearing landfall in the central Philippines before paralleling the coast and eventually making landfall in Luzon and impacting Manilla. This wouldn’t occur until early next week and is NOT what the CNN Meteorologists believe will take place. A trough to the north is not deep enough to lure the storm northward. I have also already noted signs of a more westerly track over the past hour (instead of the NW track over the past 6 hours) Every other weather agency in the Pacific (Philippines, Japan, China, Taiwan, and South Korea) has a very similar track into the central Philippines on Saturday. Unfortunately this track would take the storm very close to Tacloban and the areas that were hardest hit by last years Super Typhoon Haiyan; the strongest storm ever recorded. It’s still too early to say the exact impacts in Tacloban or any location in the central Philippines, but those details will emerge over the next 24-48 hours. Needless to say, a storm as strong as Haiyan or even close to Haiyan will have extremely significant impacts. Graphics (from left to right include) 1) current intensity of storm on 2) Likelihood of different paths explained 3) JTWC forecast path 4) Forecast cluster from other Pacific MET Agencies with JTWC as an obvious outlier.
Posted on: Thu, 04 Dec 2014 07:55:59 +0000
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