THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 150.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES, INCLUDING A 191119Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL IMPROVED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 191118Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH 25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Posted on: Sat, 19 Jul 2014 14:32:30 +0000
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