THE IMPLICATIONS OF POSTPONING THE FEBRUARY 2015 GENERAL ELECTIONS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES ON NIGERIAN POLITY: BY ATABO M.ABUBAKAR: Three months ago,I wrote an article on a topic My doubt on the possibility and viability of February 2015 general elections in that article,i sited legal,social and political reasons why I expressed doubt on the possibility and viability of holding the elections in February.Prominent among my reasons included but,not limited to shady preparations by INEC;non release of funds to the Commission;capturing of territories by insurgents, pervasive fear and insecurity in the land;as well as the non amendments of the 2010 Electoral Act to accommodate new realities(such as Internally Displaced Persons and the Permanent Voters Card) and above all,the body language of the politicians and their Political Parties.Till date,none of the aforementioned reasons has been taken care of by the authorities concerned.That is why I continously express doubt on the possibility of holding the elections in February as scheduled.A caveat was put on my long time expressed doubt two days ago with the call by the National Security Adviser Col.Sambo Dasuki (rtd) for postponement of the election by 90 days. The rationale behind this article is not to dwell on the reasons adduced for postponing the elections,since I have already dealt with them few months ago,rather to epitomizes the implications of the postponement and its attendant consequences on the Nigerian polity assuming (non conceding) that the elections will be shifted for 90 days as canvassed by the National Security Adviser. POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS: Postponing the elections for 90 days means prolonging the period of campaigns for the politicians especially those already occupying political offices.This will invariably take a negative toll on governance and day to day running of administration at all level,since those that suppose to do the work will be busy campaigning. Take for example,the National Assembly coudnt do any tangible work since November last year due to issues of election,whereas, critical legislation such the 2015 budget,constitutional amendments, Electoral Act and PIB are all lying unattended.These and many more issues will continue to suffer should elections be extended to 90 days. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS: With the degree of anxiety and tension in the Nigerian Political scene, postponing this elections at this injury period is a recipe for violence.This is inview of the fact that a large section of the country be angered to the point of taking Laws into their own hands.And should any violence erupt in any part of the country, it will resonate in other parts of the with graveous chain reactions that may lead to unimaginable consequences. LEGAL IMPLICATIONS : Should the February 2015 general elections be postponed for 90 days,all Political Parties and their candidates will have to go back and conduct fresh Primary Elections,because the law provides that,Party Primaries must be conducted 90 days to the elections. The Primaries elections that brought about the current flag bearers of Political parties were conducted in December,thus,they cannot stand the test of 90 days in the event of any postponement ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS: The Nigerian economy is at brink of collapse due to a lot of factors that includes fall in crude oil prices and non commitments in the side of investors due to uncertainty in the polity.Every election year,Investors are often skeptical about putting their money due to uncertainty and not sure of who may win the election and how it will affect their investment. If the elections are conducted in february, by March the economy will have a direction of where it headed and that will give the investors clue on where and how to invest.This will save the ailing Nigerian economy from the brink of collapse.But postponing the elections will keep the economy in the doldrums for another 90 days. CONSEQUENCES: Inview of the aforementioned,coupled with the fact that shades of public opinion in and outside Nigeria do not favour any postponement of the elections from february,it will be a huge risk for Nigeria to contemplate doing so at this critical time due to the degree of anxiety and tension pervading the country. Let it be clearly stated that any attempt to postpone the elections will potend graveous consequence that if not properly handled,may lead to Nigerias version of Arab spring that could bring down the entire government,the Political Parties and the Politicians Secondly,if violence persist the country may stand the risk of a Military coup that will scuttle its nascent democracy and all that accompanies it in one fell swoop.Already,the level of insurgency in the Northeastern part of the country has put the Military on the edge. Finally,if either of the above or both occurs in Nigeria,the drums of war will begin to beat loud and clear,the only thing that may silence it,will be to divide the country into pieces and let everyone go his way. Nigeria may cease to exist as a country in 2015 as predicted by the United States. CONCLUSIONS:It is instructive to note that, the negative implications of postponing the february 2015 general elections far outweight the positive side.If non availability of Permanent Voters Cards is the issue,then Nigeria should use the both Temporary and Permanent Voters cards which ever the voter has in his possession.If it is funding,government should release the remaining N75 billion to INEC latest by next week.If it is security,God will protect us all.But,this election must go on in february as scheduled. I rest my case.
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 04:15:35 +0000
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