***THE INTENSE HEAT WAVE & OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY*** WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING, AS ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS SOAR FROM THE LOW TO MID 90`S, BUT COMBINED WITH THE MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY/ DEW POINT LEVELS....THE "REAL- FEEL TEMPERATURES" WILL ESCALATE TO DANGEROUSLY HIGH READINGS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN THE CITY/ URBAN AREAS, THUS MAY CAUSE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES TO ISSUE "HEAT ADVISORIES"...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED HIGHER/ SURFACE- BASED DEW POINT TEMPS. ***THERE IS A "SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE T-STORMS" THIS AFTERNOON*** ACROSS A MAJORITY OF UPSTATE NY...INC. THE GENESSEE VALLEY, THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO NEAR THE CORNING TO HORESHEADS AREAS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER STRONG SURFACE HEATING FROM THE HOT JULY SUN COUPLED WITH A MODERATELY HIGH DEW POINT LEVEL WILL PRODUCE HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY READINGS FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/ KG`S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK/ TRIGGERING MECHANISM OF AN INCREASED MID- LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE A MOIST/ COOLER LAKE BREEZE LOWERING HEIGHT FALLS TO INTERACT WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE HOT/ HUMID AIR MASS TO TOWER & ERUPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHICH MAY ELEVATE TO SEVERE LEVELS IN A FEW AREAS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL & DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. **TONIGHT... WILL BE A WARM/ UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60`S. ***ON FRIDAY...BASICALLY A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE T-STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN, NY AS A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. **FRIDAY NIGHT...A CYCLONIC/ ARTIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BROADEN & AMPLIFY A MID/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/ UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING....A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO, WESTERN, NY/ NORTHWEST, PA WITH A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE T-STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN A HOT/ HUMID & VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. STEEPENING LOW TO MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH A STRONGER UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN/ EXPAND STRONG T-STORMS LATE INTO THE EVENING WITH AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS & FREQUENT/ DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. ***FINALLY ON SATURDAY...THE SHARP/ CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY & PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE T-STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS & LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF VERY MOIST, HUMID/ VERY WARM & EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE CONVECTION & A STRONG UPPER- LEVEL JET WIND CROSSING THE REGION...STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM A MUCH COOLER/ DRYER POOL AIR ALOFT DESCENDING WILL CREATE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR & POSSIBLE "SUPERCELLS" MAY CAUSE STRONG/ LINEAR BOW- ECHOES WITH DOWNBURSTS OF STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS OR MORE VERTICLE WIND SHEAR IN OTHER "SUPERCELLS" PROMOTING STRONG T-STORM CLOUD ROTATION, POSSIBLY SPAWNING FUNNEL CLOUDS/ BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES** **FROM** STEVE MATTISON...VOLUNTEER SKYWARN SPOTTER FOR THE NWS.
Posted on: Thu, 18 Jul 2013 13:22:00 +0000
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