TROPICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 1200Z 4 JUN 2014 THE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 38.00 N 65.00 W One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 39.00 N 74.00 W ONE Low Pressure System ONE Low Pressure System That Is Located At 20.00 N 93.00 W TWO Tropical Wave One Tropical wave that is located at 40.00 N 74.00 W to 37.00 N 77.00 W to 34.00 N 81.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 10.00 N 41.00 W to 5.00 N 41.00 W .......GULF OF MEXICO..... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION WESTWARD TO 28N92W THEN SW TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N98W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREVENTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING N OF 27N ACROSS THE GULF. ALL THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GENERATED BY A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY S OF 25N W OF 88W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. FURTHER AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE FRINGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N85W. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG ALONG 29N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE U.S. COASTLINE INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL EAST OF THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...E-SE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 17N AND W OF 81W...INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING S OF 10N W OF 80W IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT S OF 17N E OF 81W. AN INTRUSION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ALSO IMPACTING THIS AREA SUPPORTING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE FOR THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NOTED S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-77W AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 04/1418 UTC CONFIRMED THIS STRONGER AREA OF WIND BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. Tropical SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF Gulf Of Mexico - Caribbean Sea image shows at 2130 Z JUN 4 2014 the following: TWO North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 38.00 N 65.00 W One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 39.00 N 74.00 W ONE Low Pressure System ONE Low Pressure System That Is Located At 20.00 N 93.00 W TWO Tropical Wave One Tropical wave that is located at 40.00 N 74.00 W to 37.00 N 77.00 W to 34.00 N 81.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 10.00 N 41.00 W to 5.00 N 41.00 W .......GULF OF MEXICO..... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION WESTWARD TO 28N92W THEN SW TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N98W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREVENTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING N OF 27N ACROSS THE GULF. ALL THIS MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GENERATED BY A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY S OF 25N W OF 88W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. FURTHER AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE FRINGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR 27N85W. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG ALONG 29N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE U.S. COASTLINE INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL EAST OF THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT THE SURFACE...E-SE FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 17N AND W OF 81W...INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING S OF 10N W OF 80W IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ALOFT S OF 17N E OF 81W. AN INTRUSION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ALSO IMPACTING THIS AREA SUPPORTING OVERALL SUBSIDENCE FOR THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NOTED S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-77W AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 04/1418 UTC CONFIRMED THIS STRONGER AREA OF WIND BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
Posted on: Wed, 04 Jun 2014 22:56:23 +0000
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