...........TROPICAL UPDATE................ ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 1200 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 59.7W...OR ABOUT 39 NM N-NW OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 74 NM E OF ST. LUCIA MOVING W-NW NEAR 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...CHANTAL IS MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER LATER TODAY AND BE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 55W- 61W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 18N17W TO 9N18W MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A MAXIMUM MOISTURE SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 14W- 23W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N34W TO 5N34W MOVING WEST NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER WEST NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 32W- 41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N82W TO 13N83W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS BROKEN OFF AND IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WAVE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W...BUT MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N27W 5N37W. THERE IS NOT AN ITCZ AXIS AT THIS TIME. BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 23W- 30W. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF JAMAICA AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER OF STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA LINKED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 10N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF MOSTLY 20 KT IS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ALOFT...UPPER TROUGHING CONNECTED TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRESENT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY BROAD UPPER RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 13N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-15N EAST OF 62W AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON ALONG WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS MORNING AND BE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.
Posted on: Tue, 09 Jul 2013 16:29:11 +0000
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