Talking points: Session 1: Emerging Global Political – Security Landscape Thamassat University-ASEAN conference on ASEAN and the world July 7-8, 2014 Prof. Amado M. Mendoza, Jr., Ph.D. University of the Philippines The main purpose of this session is to analyze global political- security landscape affecting ASEAN and what should be ASEAN strategies to promote its emerging role as a global player. This session could cover and analyze the following topics: global security system affecting ASEAN global political order global polarity role of major powers global multilateralism conflicts among big powers global security issues This will be a sweeping discussion. Any discussion of the emerging global political-security landscape must start with the United States. More than 25 years after emerging triumphant and the only superpower in the globe after the Cold War, the US now finds that its military pre-eminence is not so effective or even useless in the face of challenges and difficulties. Its economy is mired in a slowdown with unemployment rates in an 8% plateau since 2008. The situation may have improved recently with joblessness reduced to 6% as of June 2014. However, Americans had to contend with high prices and economic contraction during the first quarter of 2014. Bipartisan consensus is almost impossible specially with the rise of the Tea Party that makes the Republican Party almost unrecognizable. The continued inability to reach bipartisan consensus is directed against the very person of President Obama and has repeatedly led to near-paralysis of the federal government, including passage of the federal budget. Budget difficulties have led to scaling down of the military budgets. However, the privatization of military activities has proceeded apace. The use of unpopular drone systems likewise continues. Nevertheless, the much vaunted war on terror is unraveling. Malikis Iraq is a failed state under assault by the ISIS/ISIL while Karzais government only holds sway in Kabul and environs. Pakistan, a key ally in the war on terror, is itself having serious problems maintaining its hold over the frontier provinces. Furthermore, the ISIS effort offers opportunities for militants from all over the world to fight alongside mainstream ISIS/ISIL forces and to gain valuable experience that could be used elsewhere in the globe. ISIS represents a new development in that the establishment of a transnational caliphate, originally the political aim of the al-Qaeda, is sought in Syria, Iraq, and the Levant. The economies of US allies in Europe and Japan are in bad shape. Southern Europe is mired in public debt that increasingly Germany and the Netherlands are refusing to finance unless economic austerity measures are adopted by the formers governments. On the other hand, attempts of governments to impose austerity has generated unrest in Greece and Spain. The economic difficulties of Europe have made it more inward looking and less active in supporting US foreign initiatives. In North Africa and the Middle East, the US faces a situation fraught with uncertainty because of the repercussions of the Arab Spring. Egypt experienced a return to military rule after an Islamist government headed by the Islamist leader, Morsi, elected into power, was ousted in 2013. Early this year, the interim government instituted a new constitution following a referendum where majority were supportive though voter turnout was low. The bright spot seems to be Tunisia where a secular democratic government is trying to consolidate itself. The apparent contest is between Islamists on one hand and secular democrats on the other hand. Having been associated with the Mubarak and Ben Ali regimes, the US and the West have scant influence in both countries. Libyas transition to constitutional government is marred by a vicious attack on the US consulate in Benghazi where the US ambassador to Libya was killed to the embarrassment of the Obama administration. Meanwhile, coup attempts disguised as anti-terrorist efforts by Libyan generals help destabilize the situation.. In Bahrain, a rising by the majority Shia against the Sunni rulers was suppressed brutally by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Throughout the region, the US is beset by complaints from its allies (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the GCC) for either not doing enough or for doing the wrong things in the region. As the USs power position is under question because of its difficulties, anti-US powers like Russia and China became more nationalistic and assertive in recent years. Russia under Putin is so different from the Russia under Yeltsin which gave the West all the concessions it wanted without getting anything (as in money) in return. Instead, the West expanded NATO to include former Soviet bloc countries (like the Baltic states) and increased Russias vulnerability. Putin seeks to reverse the trend of Russian decline and relieve it of the dangers existing in its neighborhood. The Russian resolve is best demonstrated by the Ukrainian crisis which was precipitated by a Western-sponsored ouster of a pro-Russian elected government. Russia took advantage of the presence of a significant Russian minority in eastern Ukraine and massed troops in the border regions as well as instigate take-overs of government buildings and military installations in the Crimea. The US and its allies are unable to successfully counter Russias moves in Ukraine save for a feeble blacklisting and the freeze of bank accounts of a few individuals. The slowdown of the world economy led to the triumph of the nationalist wing over the internationalist wing of the Chinese party-state. Failing to see any possible gain from being continuously integrated in the world capitalist economy and socialized as a good global citizen, the Chinese government under President Xi Ping has embarked on a inward-looking economic development programme (largely involving infrastructure projects) and an aggressive programme of asserting control over waters and territories in the South China Sea (SCS), directed largely against the Philippines and Vietnam, and in the East Sea against Japan. Chinas general strategy is a carrot-and-stick approach. It sought to drive a wedge within ASEAN by courting Cambodia, Laos, and East Timor with juicy carrots. Even Brunei has recently opted from ASEAN efforts to come up with a unified position on the Code of Conduct (COC) in the SCS. On the other hand, the approach to rival claimants like the Philippines and Vietnam can only be characterized as very aggressive. It is still calibrated (as in the use of civilian vessels) so as not to provoke military response. Yet, it is building facts on the ground so as to present a fait accompli to its oppositors who have yet to get their act together. The rise of China and the spread of its influence during an earlier charm offensive prompted the United States to craft a pivot-to-Asia (renamed as re-balancing to Asia) strategy which is obviously designed to thwart Chinas bid for regional hegemony ala John Mearsheimer. Indeed, China took advantage of the USs pre-occupation elsewhere (because of the borderless war on terror) and the vigorous world economy to engage in a charm offensive that bore fruit not only in Asia but also in Africa. In Southeast Asia, it put one over Japan through the multilateral CAFTA while Japan sought bilateral EPAs. It was also during this period that it overtook Japan as the worlds second largest economy. Needless to say, it also used its new economic prosperity to refurbish its military, specially its navy (with its first aircraft carrier). On the other hand, Chinas aggressiveness prompted in situ oppositors to close ranks. The announced readiness of Japan to forge a strategic alliance with the Philippines is noteworthy. Similarly, the drawing together of Vietnam and the Philippines to strengthen their opposition to Chinas expansionism. Nonetheless, I do not see any abating of Chinese aggressive activities. It is essentially an opportunist revisionist power that seeks to gain the most while its oppositors are either in disarray or while legal proceedings are still on-going. It is most likely to continue as the USs attention is also directed elsewhere in Central Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. This means that the US will bring pressure to bear on its Asian partners from Northeast Asia to Australasia to help counter China. What is quite curious is the relative inertness of Taiwan regarding the South China Sea contretemps. Chinese aggression is measured and calibrated to avoid hot wars. The cabbage strategy of enveloping and constricting territory held by oppositors is a concretization of war avoidance but for maximum gain. Island building on territory they already hold is a very clever strategy on their part. With respect to China, ASEAN faces two challenges: that of being marginalized as a player in the region from being in the so-called drivers seat; and, relatedly, of being sliced and diced by Chinas carrot-and-stick strategy. The APT does not figure in any way in the SCS issue and ASEAN has demonstrably failed to present a common front on the issue. The weakest link in ASEAN are the poorer countries in mainland Southeast Asia like Cambodia and Laos. The 2013 ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh failed to produce a summit statement for the first time in the organizations history. Even the newest state in the region and potentially the 11th ASEAN member, Timor Leste, had been courted steadily by Chinese largesse. The putative leader of the region, Indonesia, has yet to make a mark in the SCS problem. It remains to be seen if the conflict could be dialed down so the parties can agree to cooperate in activities like joint exploration while skirting the territorial claims problem. The above discussion indicates that the current and emerging global political-security landscape present dangers for the Southeast Asian region. The situation will only improve if: (1) the world economy recovers (2) crises in other parts of the world abate (3) allowing the US to rebalance to Asia at a faster rate than what is currently evident (4) and the US learns and accepts its reduced power and influence in global affairs by accommodating the legitimate interests of powers like China and Russia, and possibly India, and the normalization of a power like Japan.
Posted on: Tue, 08 Jul 2014 11:28:57 +0000
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