The Aussie Met ENSO Neutral forecast from yesterday; their Summer = Our (US) Winter: An ENSO-neutral summer most likely Issued on Tuesday 22 October 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012,with all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO presently within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the neutral ENSO-pattern will persist through the coming summer. Here are some of the analog Winter patterns we typically see for the US during Enso Neutral Winters; we have too keep an eye on this through the Spring to see if we get any unusual anomalies over the next several months: ENSO-neutral and winter weather patterns Then theres all of the ENSO-neutral events for which we have a considerably larger sample size to consider. What sticks out on the temperature map is the large expanse and impressive intensity of cold anomalies over Canada. A finger of chill points at the Great Lakes and Northeast. Little warmth is apparent except for near Greenland (hinting at a propensity for blocking).The jet stream is extremely interesting. As with La Nina, the steering flow rides south across Alaska and western Canada, but unlike the La Nina pattern, it does not weaken so much over the Northern U.S. Cold air from the Arctic source region typically carries farther south and east into the U.S. compared to the Nina setup. Influence from the subtropical jet appears to be limited, but any surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico would tend to aid secondary storm development over or off the Southeast Coast given the cold-to-warm temperature boundary to the north and northwest. ENSO-neutral winters and D.C. snow Ironically or perhaps not D.C.s median seasonal snowfall calculated for all ENSO-neutral events since 1950 is 15 inches, which equals the normal amount. There have been some real duds, including last winter%u2019s 3.1 inches, but there have also been some bonanzas, like in 1960-61 (40.3 inches) and in 1978-79 (37.7inches). ENSOs impact will be difficult to judge for this winter, and it wont be the only driving force on our local temperature and snowfall pattern. Despite those arguments, ENSO correlations with winter temperatures and snowfall show us certain patterns that might be helpful in creating a forecast.
Posted on: Wed, 23 Oct 2013 13:25:10 +0000
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