The Christmas storm of 2012 was an historic event. The last time a large snow storm affected the entire state of Arkansas was 80 years ago on Christmas. The storm had affected a large portion of the south including Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. The storm was multi-faceted with a cold rain, icy mixture, and a wind-blown snow. The northern side featured morning rain and thunderstorms followed a steady temperature drop followed by transition to ice and snow. The storm was a beauty, but also a beast. There was forecast challenges prevalent leading up to the event. It was a white Christmas to remember to say the least. The eventual track of the storm and weather conditions for Christmas was highly uncertain until Christmas Eve Night. The GFS numerical model lacked consistency from run to run even 48 hours prior to the event with the track and snow accumulation forecasts. The NAM model also lacked consistency and was all over the place with the track anywhere from Fort Smith, AR to Shreveport, LA. The northern track would mean severe thunderstorms and tornadoes for Southern Arkansas, while the southern track would mean heavy snow for Southern Arkansas. It was from the extreme to the other. The European model was fairly consistent with a track from Arkadelphia, AR to just south of Shreveport, LA. I went with 5-10 inches of snow as my forecast, with locally heavier amounts. At 6 PM on Christmas Eve, it was evident the track took a capricious shift due south by 80 miles then due east again. It was clear now that if the track held that a historic snow storm would occur for much of Arkansas. In fact the area ended up getting anywhere from five to fifteen inches of snow. The European model was much more accurate than any of the others, but the NAM six hours leading up to the event nailed the heaviest snowfall axis. I woke up at around seven-o clock that morning, and I heard the rain pounding on the window driven by the northeasterly blustery winds. A couple of thunderstorms also moved through the area, which was odd with temperatures so low. The temperature was determined to be forty-one degrees that morning while moderate to occasional heavy rainfall and lightning filled the sky. The lightning was more strobe lightning, and not so much cloud to ground lightning with a gentle role of thunder to follow. The flashes of lighting lit up the landscape, as the dark gray clouds loomed above. The waves of moderate rain continued through late morning, as temperatures slowly fell into the upper 30s. The northeasterly winds were brisk bringing in the cold air, while the upper level winds were more out of the south explaining why there was instability for thunderstorms. The wind sent a chill down your spine, as you were drenched by the heaves above. The rain ran down the road into the ditches and slowly filled up. The rain transitioned into a light drizzle. The clouds had a lighter gray tent to them, and the cloud bases lifted some. Meanwhile to the north, some parts of Central Arkansas were hovering near freezing creating a freezing rain and sleet combination. The precipitation intensities increased further north, meanwhile dry and cold air started to pour into the region from the west around the backside of the low pressure system. A surface low was developing across Northeast Texas and was moving northwest into the cold air shifting south and west from the north behind an arctic cold front. The freezing rain and sleet accumulated onto trees and power-lines, and made the streets as slick as glass across Central Portions of Arkansas. The weight of just a quarter inch of ice was enough to take out power to many people across Hot Springs and surrounding locations. Southwest Arkansas dried out for a couple of hours as temperatures fell to near freezing. The ground dried out from the one to three inches of rainfall depending on your location that feel that morning. Some of the water started to freeze on the bridges and overpasses as temperatures hovered close to the thirty two degree mark. The roads became slick, but still drivable at around 3:00 PM. More precipitation started to develop out west, and this time it was frozen. The column all the way up had cooled allowing for conditions supportive of snow. The surface low pressure system deepened rather quickly, and allowed for an increase in northerly winds once again. The snow was creeping closer at 4 PM as my dad was called out for outages on cable and internet. At 4:30 PM that afternoon precipitation was not gentle by any mans as heavy sleet pellets bounced on the concrete and quickly started to accumulate. A tenth of an inch of ice had fallen in just ten minutes, as it coated the grass and the tar on the road. The roads were now extremely slick, with a small layer of sleet on the top of the pavement. The trees already had a slight dusting of sleet on them. The sleet shined bright on the green leaves on the pine-trees. It was a sight to see. No later, than 5 PM a sheet of heavy snow started to fall. The snow blanketed the fields, trees, and grass. The snow also covered the top of the cars at first and eventually the entire exposed metal surface. It was a truly a sight to see, but there were dangers beneath its beauty. My dad was driving back home on Highway 27. His trip was only ten miles, but it took him well over twenty minutes due to the blinding, slanted, and wind-blown snow squalls. Not to mention, the surface below him was a coating of fresh snow followed by a sheet of glass. Traveling was treacherous even with just an inch of snow. The snow finally let up at around 10 PM, and became a light gentle snow on top of six inches of snow which eventually accumulated to around seven inches of snow by midnight. Further north, a heavy snow combined with near blizzard conditions. Areas like Hot Springs, AR and Little Rock, AR experienced forty-mile per hour winds combined with heavy snow which eventually accumulated to around a foot or more of snow. The snow storm finally exited the region at around 4:30 AM the next morning. The damage had been done with most of Central into Northeast Arkansas seeing significant power outages and significant car accidents. This storm also killed a couple of people as well around Little Rock, AR. This storm was horrific, historic, and beautiful in many ways. The chances of this happening again on Christmas are low, but it could happen again during the winter. The temperatures fell from the 40s into the 20s during the event, and much of the state of Arkansas had a snow-pack that stayed for up to a week. This storm reminds me of how fast the weather can change in Arkansas, one day it can be seventy degrees and the next day heavy snow. Hopefully we can better predict a winter storm in the future, as we study the development and impacts of the storm. Arkansas was not the only state impacted by heavy snow. Parts of Northeast Texas saw three to five inches of snow in less than two hours due to a band of thunder snow. A severe weather event occurred in the Southeast with several tornadoes. This storm was truly a beautiful storm.
Posted on: Fri, 13 Sep 2013 05:34:05 +0000
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