The Global Rise of Asian Transformation: Trends and Developments in Economic Growth Dynamics Edited by Pongsak Hoontrakul , Christopher Balding and Reena Marwah (As of Sept 1, 2014) Table of Contents Preface by Pongsak Hoontrakul Forward by Prof. Khunying Suchada Kiranan – Councilor Chair of Chulalongkorn Univ., Bangkok 1. Asia’s Transformation for an Asian Century: Choices & Challenges by Pongsak H 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The Rise & Decline of the West 1.3 The Rise of Asia a) The Rise of China, b) China and India c) The Rise of ASEAN 1.4 Five Mega Trends that are reshaping Asia a) Life after QE, b) The impact of new technologies, c) Individual empowerment and growing demands, d) Asia extending from regional to international and e) Changes in demographic patterns. 1.5 Five Game Changers that Will Make or Break Asia a) Rising pressures on ruling systems, b) The energy landscape reshaped by the shale gas revolution, c) The transformation of global trade and financial flows, d) Regional Connectivity and Urbanization and e) Talent, Human Capital and the “middle income trap” Case Study: 1) The World’s Mega Trends & Game Changers: What about Asia? by Pongsak H 2) A Thai Billionaire Tycoon Shrewdly Maneuvers to Acquire F&N Acquire by Pongsak H and Nisanart T 2. Asia’s Evolving Economic Dynamism and Political Pressures by Pongsak H 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Asia’s Political Economic Landscape 2.2.1 Staging the Economic Boom, 2.2.2 A Mélange of Political System and 2.2.3 Back to Basics with Aristotle. 2.3 Economic Power shifting from West to East 2.3.1 The Next Growth Engine: The Knowledge-Based Economy and 2.3.2 Industrialization and Democratization. 2.4 Geopolitics Centering around the United States-China Rivalry 2.5 Elites under Challenge and a New Paradigm 2.5.1 Rising Middle Class Demands and 2.5.2 The ICT Challenge – A New Paradigm 2.6 The Agenda Ahead 2.6.1 Institutions matter more than elections, 2.6.2 A Brave New World under a New Paradigm and 2.6.3 The United States-China Paradigm and the Regional Agenda. Case Study: 1) “China: A Party Dominated by Mysterious “Princelings” by Pongsak H 2) “Thailand’s “Great Mass Uprising”: The Digital Spark” by Pongsak H 3. Life after QEs By Pongsak H 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Money Matters - Macro Economic Outlook - FX War - Emerging Asia & Capital Flow: It’s External Shock Vulnerability 3.3 Slow Trade in goods & Services - Continued Growth of World Int’l Trade towards Asia & Intra-Asia Trade, 3.4 Fast Transformation in financial & banking industry - Lessons from the Great Recession – Exogenous vs Endogenous Risk - Near Zero Interest Rate Hazardous? - Too-big-too-fail issues - Financial Safety Nets in Asia and 3.5 Both West & East re-balance their priorities - Where are the growth drivers? - How to finance these growths? 3.6 Conclusion Case Study: 1) “Japan’s automakers are reclaiming its prosperity” by Pongsak H 2) “Prada & Emerging Asian Nouveau Riche” By Pongsak H & Nisanart Thadabusapa 4. Fast Track to first Regionalization and then Internationalization By Christopher Balding and David Garcia 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Cross Border Investment 4.3 Trade Relations 4.3.1 ASEAN’s Transformation, 4.3.2 Shifting Trade Dynamics and 4.3.3 Direct Competition with Developed Markets. 4.4 Domestic Demand 4.4.1 Inward Shifting perspective as a Transaction Friction, 4.4.2 Employment as a Trade Friction, 4.4.3 Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN and 4.4.4 Is China the Answer? 4.5 Conclusion. Case Study: 1) “Lenovo: Global Expansion by Takeovers” by Nat Pinnoi & Pongsak H 2) “Tata Motor & Range Rover Acquisition” By Pongsak H 5. Harnessing the Power of Social Media and Mobile Technology in Asia By Pongsak H 5.1 Introduction, 5.2 The Economics of Wireless Data, 5.3 The Social Media Economy 5.3.1 Value Transfer, 5.3.2 Re-intermediary and 5.3.3 Disruptive Force. 5.4 SMAC and Its Implications, 5.5 “Talent: Human capital & Middle income Trap” Case Study 1) “India’s Big Three IT Services Firms and the SMAC Race” by Pongsak H 2) “Sony: The Former Gadget King” by Pongsak H & Nisanart Thadabusapa 3) “Addressing the Binding Constraints: Reforming the Thai Education System” by Nonarit Bisonyabut, TDRI 6. The Rise of China and India-Its Implications By Pongsak H, Christopher Balding and Reena Marwah 6.1 Introduction 6.2 The Revolutions: 6.2.1 China 6.2.2 India 6.3 China & India stumbling in different directions: 6.3.1 Chindia, 6.3.2 Growth Story, 6.3.3 China’s Rebalancing Formula and 6.3.4 India Silent Transformation - Rural Roads, Rural Electrification, Mobile Phone and Other Drivers. 6.4 Selected Issues for Discussion 6.4.1 Barriers to Riches, 6.4.2 Power Rivalry and 6.4.3 Upgrader Consumers 6.5 Conclusion Case Study 1) “From Local to International: Dr. Reddy’s of India” by Pongsak H and 2) “Developing the Offshore RMB” by Pongsak H. & Jonathan Batten 7. The Rise of ASEAN 2.0 – AEC & Regional Connectivity By Pongsak Hoontrakul 7.1 Introduction, 7.2 ASEAN’s Economic potential 7.2.1 As Producers and 7.2.2 As Consumers 7.3 Economic Gains from Greater Connectivity 7.3.1 Financial Services and 7.3.2 Land Bridge Connectivity 7.4 The “Sweet Spot” in Urbanization, 7.5 Welcoming Passengers and Textile Plants 7.5.1 “ASEAN Open Skies” Policy, 7.5.2 Textile Tax Privileges and 7.5.3 The ASEAN Way. Case Study 1) Exclusive Interview with H.E. Mr. U Htay Aung, Minister of Hotel & Tourism, Myanmar on Investment and 2) “The Iskanda Project and Property Development: Lessons from Shenzen” by Pongsak H 8. Asia’s Energy Innovation after Shale Gas Revolution by Chanathip Pharino and Pongsak Hoontrakul 8.1 Introduction, 8.2 The Shale Gas Revolution - The Current Situation of Shale Gas in Asia 8.3 The Green Energy Economy in Asia 8.3.1 Key Renewable Energy Sources: Solar, Wind, Hydro & Nuclear Power abd 8.4 Challenges for Renewable Energy Development 8.4.1 Land-Use Intensity and Scalability, 8.4.2 Smart Grid and 8.4.3 Slowing the growth of Energy Demand: • Ban the Incandescent Bulb, • Promoting Energy-Efficient Appliances, • Restructuring Transportation 8.5 The Green Economy: In Summary Case Study: 1) China Carbon Market by Bin Ye, 2) CNOOC & Its quest for energy resource by Pongsak H and 9. Natural Disasters and Fragile Supply Chains: The Great East Japan Earthquake and the Thai Foods in 2011 By Shigeyuki Abe and Pongsak Hoontrakul 9.1 Introduction: Disaster-Prone Asia, 9.2 The Great East Japan Earthquake, 9.3 Intermediate Goods Trade and Supply Chain Development in Asia, 9.4 The Great Thai Floods of 2011, 9.4 Comparing the Two Disasters and 9.5 Lessons for the Future Case Study “Mitsubishi Gas, Japan: Broken Unique Supply Chain in the 311 Earthquake” by Pongsak H
Posted on: Sat, 13 Dec 2014 05:33:15 +0000
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