The Huffington Posts Senate forecast model gives Democrats a 56% chance of holding onto the Senate majority. This contrasts with FiveThirtyEights model, which gives Republicans a 64% chance of winning a majority. The difference is in the models -- whereas 538s takes the fundamentals of the election into account, the HuffPo model focuses more strictly on poll numbers. The fundamentals clearly benefit the Republicans -- eg more Dem seats in play, off-year election, etc..., but whats interesting is that, as Bloomberg View puts it, Republicans appear to be underperforming the fundamentals. As long as that continues to be the case, particularly as we get closer to election day, look for the 538 models Republican advantage to shrink. Unless of course, the fundamentals kick in and push things in the R direction, in which case, the HuffPo models Dem advantage will shrink. Anyway, something to look at as we enter the final stretch. Link to a summary of the various models can be found here: bv.ms/1unex7r.
Posted on: Wed, 03 Sep 2014 21:16:54 +0000
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