The National Conference is also a very smart move. It is a wonderful way to mop up a lot of the politicians and herd them out of their domains into one central location. I pray that it is no more sinister than that. The National Conference serves three major purposes. First, some of those who have gone into virtual oblivion have been resurrected and would be grateful for the opportunity to keep busy in Abuja. Two, while engaging in hot arguments, they will leave the President to concentrate on campaigning unhindered. Three, the President would have easier access to most of these putative leaders and call them to over whenever their services are needed. The other elites in their midst will continue to delude themselves that there is no alternative to the National Conference. When tomorrow comes, they would realise their futility in the non-enforceability and probable impracticability of whatever decisions are reached. By that time, the elections would be knocking and then to thy tents O Israel. I’m sorry if I sound cynical. Someone whose child was killed by a witch sees every woman as a suspect.The third arm of the campaign is religion. President Jonathan’s strategy is to amass and appropriate and monopolise Christendom as his catchment area. His mission appears to be to create a skilfully and methodically packaged battle of wits between Christians and Muslims in particular. Of course he completely neglects or ignores devotees of other religions. They are simply insignificant in the scheme of things, or so it seems. However, we all know where most politicians are reputed to go in the dead of night! Anyway back to the festering use of religion as a veritable campaign tool by the President. He has been going from church to church, courting his brethren and letting them know he is the one who can protect them against the rampaging defenders of the Islamic Faith as they claim. Interestingly, the Faithful that he seems to be fraternising with for the most part are the Pentecostal churches and their leaders. The mind boggles. For now, it seems to be working but no one knows for how long. I will explain what I mean shortly. The PDP seems to be hoping that APC will make the mistake of risking a Muslim-Muslim ticket like Chief Moshood Abiola did in 1993. That is all President Jonathan needs to turn on the heat of religious rivalry and bigotry.Next is ethnicity. The people of the South South will insist on serving out their two terms under Jonathan. It does not matter to them that this may be technically impossible, as some cerebral lawyers advocate, on the basis that it is claimed the Constitution does not allow a President to be sworn in three times and that a President cannot serve more than two terms. According to the senior Counsellors, if Jonathan runs and wins next year, he would have been sworn in three times and also serve a total of three terms and nine years. This case promises to be very interesting whenever it eventually gets to the Supreme Court. The Ijaw Nation in particular is not ready to listen to any legal jargon that would eliminate Jonathan by subterfuge. Their indignation is anchored on the belief that their region is the goose that lays the golden eggs. If power is taken away from them, they don’t know when it will be their turn again. The principle sounds tenable.But the APC is bound to counter with the argument that ethnicity and religion are the reasons Nigeria remains chronically underdeveloped and that performance should henceforth form the bedrock of our political activity and vision. Of course, this won’t be absolutely practical and in the short run may not hold water. It seems to me that APC itself would have to play the ethnic card to counter Jonathan. Its candidate would naturally and most definitely come from the North West or the North East or North Central where it is hoped more votes would come to over-run the regions where Jonathan is strong namely South South, South East and North Central or the Middle Belt. This looks good on paper but it would depend on the choice of candidate to run against Jonathan. If the candidate remains Buhari, the same results are likely to be repeated as that of 2011. But if the elders of the party play and behave like true statesmen and decide to field their younger members, this is likely to ignite a passion and frenzy in first time voters without which it would be impossible to defeat Jonathan.As presently constituted, APC is blessed with a lot of superstars from every zone. In the North West, it has Muhammadu Buhari, Nasir El Rufai, Uba Saidu Malami, Sokoto Governor Aliyu Wamakko and Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. I won’t be surprised if former Central Bank Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi and House of Representatives’ Speaker Aminu Tambuwal join APC any time soon. From the North East are Atiku Abubakar and Murtala Nyako, Nuhu Ribadu, Mohammed Marwa, Borno Governor Kashim Shettima and others. In the North Central, it has arrow-heads in Bukola Saraki, Nassarawa Governor Tanko Al-Makura, Kwara Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed and others. From the South West is Bola Tinubu leading all the Governors minus Olusegun Mimiko of Edo, Segun Osoba and a host of other unsung heroes of the Pro-democracy movement. From the South East are Governor Rochas Okorocha, Chris Ngige and others. From South South, APC has formidable members in Rotimi Amaechi, Adams Oshiomhole amongst others. APC parades some of the brightest materials in Nigerian politics today. How APC makes progress would depend on how the party unites against a common enemy and blends the strong human materials they have. The APC can be the unifying party that Nigerians have been praying for, if it properly harnesses the talent and spiritedness of the seeming strange bedfellows that have joined forces to liberate our country from a debilitating past and a potentially destructive future. I will continue the search for potential candidates against Jonathan next week and the issues that are likely to affect the results at the end of the day.
Posted on: Sat, 15 Mar 2014 12:46:48 +0000
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