The US threats to Syria : prologue to withdrawal from Afghanistan - Elias Farhat As part of campaign promises, US President Barack Obama wanted all US troops withdrawn from Iraq by the end of 2012, and from Afghanistan by the end of 2014. Today, the US has withdrawn all combat troops from Iraq, leaving a small training force, and transferred security operations to Iraqi forces, led by an elected government. In Afghanistan, however, the situation is not so clear cut. This rugged, mountainous country continues to be plagued by instability and the question of who dominates the land has yet to be fully determined .This is a cause of deep concern for the US, with the most pressing point being the exit strategy. Afghanistan, the landlocked “graveyard of empires”, has been the object of fascination for military powers for centuries. In the 1800s, it formed an uneasy buffer zone during the Great Game between the United Kingdom, controlling the Indian subcontinent, and the Russian Empire, controlling central Asia known in part as Turkestan. In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, the US launched its own attempt at bringing order to Afghanistan, going after Al Qaeda by overthrowing the Taliban government harbouring them. During that time, countries of central Asia, freshly independent from their Soviet past, were reeling from the transition from state-driven communist economies to western-style free markets. This shock led to a significant decline in quality of life as corruption and mismanagement were prevalent. In an effort to secure economic lifelines, the bordering countries, Tajikistan , Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, offered their air bases and airspace to the US, the very same bases used by the Soviet Union when it invaded Afghanistan in the early eighties. Uzbekistan, for example, received US$150 million dollars for use of its air bases, mainly Karash Khanabad. Kyrgyzstan offered its Manas airport facility to the US, which defense contractor Halliburton rehabilitated as the Manas Air Base, now the Transit Center at Manas. Since 2001, the political climate in central Asia has changed. These countries had been seeking independence from the Soviets, and later Russian influence; but they did not find an ally to provide strategic depth against threats from non-state actors, namely Political Islam. This politicization of Islam was considered based primarily in the Ferghana Valley and the city of Bukhara. Concerned by the US support for fundamentalist Islamic movements in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Volga basin, these countries returned to the Russian sphere of influence where they found their political and economic interests better aligned. Kyrgyzstan has given a deadline of July 2014 for the US to evacuate the Transit Center at Manas. The end of 2014 is fast approaching, and the US has not yet determined a viable exit strategy from Afghanistan. With the Iranian and Chinese borders off-limits (936km and 76km, respectively) the option of exit through Pakistan comes up. There are many problems in choosing that path, one of which is the demand of influence on Afghanistan, which would raise eyebrows both in India and Iran, who each are wary of increased Pakistani influence in the region. The Pakistan-Afghanistan border runs for 2430km, a deeply tribal area bisected by the Durand Line. On the Pakistani side, a multitude of terrorist organizations, hostile to the US, are active, including Tehrik-i Taliban, Jaish-e Muhammad (The Army of Mohammad), Lashkar-e Taiba and the Haqqani network. These would certainly confront the US forces in many aspects. The ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) has roughly 98,000 troops, of which 68 thousand are US personnel. Redeploying such a force is no simple feat. If the US requested to use Pakistani borders and air space, the latter would demand high price. The area’s tribal nature makes securing it difficult without a strong endorsement from Pakistan. For this support, Pakistan might demand control of Jammu-Kashmir, which would bring about the ire of nuclear-armed India. President Obama, in his presidential campaign, called for a negotiated settlement in Kashmir, but an Indian MP responded that in case Kashmir was put under discussion, then they should consider returning Texas to Mexico. Faced with difficult options, there is no choice left for the US but to withdraw from Afghanistan through Central Asia. While this may seem like conceding to the Russians, this exit route calculates the political, economic and strategic cost to be less than the price paid to Pakistan, Iran or India. In light of this, US actions in Syria are setting the stage to determine the exit route out of Afghanistan. The current debate in Washington indicates that the US is eager to resolve the situation in Syria quickly, in order to negotiate Russia from a position of strength. The goal was to deprive Russia from a strong ally on the Mediterranean, and to foster Islamic militants growing in Central Asia and the Caucasus to counterbalance resurgent Russian influence, without any overt involvement from the US. The plan misfired, and the Syrian regime did not fall. Moreover, Syrian government forces started a counter offensive, achieving significant victories and regaining control from opposition rebels. Because time is running out for its 2014 Afghan deadline, the US took the gloves off and began beating the drums of war, backed by its sophisticated arsenal, to resolve the situation in Syria before time runs out for withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Posted on: Mon, 09 Sep 2013 15:00:00 +0000
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