The first tropical storm of the Central Pacific Hurricane Season formed Thursday. Tropical Storm Wali continues to move to the northwest near 12 mph with little change in strength and this motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours. It is currently 995 miles (1,600 km) east southeast of Hilo and carries maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The cloud pattern associated with Wali has shown no sign of intensification in the past few hours. Two areas of deep convection formed during the late morning and have been recently hinting at developing into curved bands around a difficult to pinpoint low level center. Read more: Top 10: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Wali The initial motion is toward the northwest, about 325/10 kt. Wali is being steered into a weakness within the low to mid level subtropical ridge to the north. Expect little change to this motion over the next couple of days followed by a turn to the west as the weakening system is increasingly influenced by the easterly low level trade wind flow. The forecast track has been changed little and remains roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. Conditions are conducive for some strengthening in the short term, possibly as long as 24 hours. A ridge aloft over Wali is providing good poleward outflow over Wali and the NASA/sport SST composite product reveals marginally conducive ocean temperatures around 26 to 27 C along the forecast track. By this time Friday, Wali will be encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear due to an upper level trough parked just west of the main Hawaiian islands. This will lead to a weakening trend into a remnant low by 72 hours, possibly less according to guidanceAccording to Chris Brenchley, acting morning coordination meteorologist for Honolulu office of Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the storm will have likely dissipated by the time it reaches Hawaii. However, it is expected to bring heavy rain to the state and flash flooding would be the main concern, Brenchley says. Be prepared if you live in an area prone to flooding. The threat of rain has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a flash flood watch for all islands from 6 p.m. Saturday through 6 p.m. Monday. Deep tropical moisture combined with an upper level trough will bring the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms, according to the alert. “Another thing that’s concerning is that the moisture’s not moving very fast, so it’s not like this is gonna be a six- or 12-hour period where we get showers and thunderstorms and then they’re gone. This could kind of hang around for a couple of days,” said Robert Ballard, NWS meteorologist. Localized intense rainfall is likely to occur with the potential for flash flooding. The greatest chance of flooding will occur over Windward slopes with a lesser chance over Leeward locations. .
Posted on: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 09:21:29 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015