The historic agreement has been by Iran. The turn of events have been dramatic. Those who were skeptics, are awestruck finding no words to give a statement, are silent. I am talking of Saudi Arabia, and most of the kingdoms of gulf countries. Only UAE has welcomed the move. The fallout of this treaty will be far-reaching on world economics and power equations. So far USA kept itself imposed onto others as big bro guiding others to follow. It was OK till the days of cold war, or even till recently. But the big SAM has now realized, its getting old and it needs to change. The old order has brought only miseries for themselves and the rest of the world. They have so far got the jobs done showing red eyes to the adversaries and thought it would work every time everywhere. But the bashing by an obstinate North Korea and Iran brazenly grazing its thick nose has shaken their confidence. They now have realized, no more its a uni-polar world...there are others not so weak and respectable nations drifting away from US-s proposed policies on most of the age-old conflicts. They are talking on eye-on-eye term. They are forming a group where they recommend negotiation with due respect given to the stake-holders. This event is extremely important and is symbolic of US-s diminishing influence where it merely played a second fiddle, and rise of a new world order of co-operation, understanding, zero-conflict approach. Lots of water has flown under the bridge since the gulf-war, where George Bush the senior cunningly took other nations into his fold on a cooked up story of Iraq having WMD. That fell flat on its face and this shameless nation has no grace to at least admit it was wrong ! With this instance, any theory by USA is taken with a pinch of salt.... a loss of trust and credibility. It is a huge loss and will show its impact in the coming days, as I predict, USA will have to swallow many more bitter pills with a wide grin (as it is doing now with Iran) as if it got a mouthful of famous Calcutta Rosogolla ! The geopolitical events will lead us to a new horizon. We shall keep this event behind us as a study case to formulate solutions for more such conflicts. Also, the economic fall out will be tremendous. The monopoly of Sunni countries holding their oil reserve will face tough competition from their much disliked Iran which so far they could keep under pressure to continue to suffer the consequences of sanctions. Only the forward-looking states like UAE and Abu Dhabi will be happy to see a new rising Iran. USA will be another big beneficiary. This Glorious Retreat by them (as it is famous war-room strategic phrase by British) gives an indication that they are tired dealing with a rogue country, Pakistan. In case USA befriends Iran, it can very well dominate the nearby states like Afghanistan, and why not Paki-s as well ? The way Paki-s are getting close and more close to China, much to its dislike, US will find new friends to contain both. This will be a good news for India in many ways. We have to find if the Pentagon has hired some Russian Grand Masters in a secret move ! Also, the extreme uneasiness of its secrets being coming into open through some disgruntled citizens who are hold up in UK and Kremlin has instilled fear of more revelations and an overdose of embarrassment. It hope, by keeping low and making a strategic somersault will minimize the impact of such eventualities in the coming days. India, a friend of Iran will be in the fold sooner or later. This will come clearer as how close it can stake its footsteps near the new strategic playground. Perhaps, it is waiting in the pavilion with its gears on to display a spectacular game very soon. (I, the writer, is not a professional in strategic and international relations, and I have not studied books to establish my thoughts...hence, my words are not from an expert, but a feeble try by a novice, remotely placed from this extremely complicated specialised field. I shall very much consciously stand to be corrected by others who bear greater grip on this subject. Dr. Prabir Brahmachari) Mumbai. 25.11. 2013
Posted on: Mon, 25 Nov 2013 11:49:43 +0000
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