The moisture that will feed thunderstorm activity today is slowly migrating into the region with the bulk of it currently in northern California. Water vapor imagery clearly shows this plume of moisture moving in from the southeast. We managed to break a record yesterday with a daytime high temperature of 102 degrees in Medford. The old record high temperature was 101 degrees set in 2010. With this increasing cloud deck across the region, daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler with upper 90s possible for most western interior valleys. The Heat Advisory continues into today despite slightly cooler temperatures. This is due to increasing humidity levels that actually reduce the cooling capacity of the human body. The greatest concern today is the thunderstorm risk that will develop during the afternoon and late evening hours. The models have trended less active in terms of thunderstorm development for west side zones including the Rogue and Illinois valleys. In fact there is minimal chance of seeing any thunderstorms develop west of the Cascades. This is largely due to a capped environment which has been the trend over the last few thunderstorm events. The greatest chance for development will be along the Cascades and areas just east of the mountain range in Klamath and Lake Counties. Northern California counties including Siskiyou and Modoc will also see more widespread activity. The thunderstorm activity will die down this evening with thunderstorms forming in the same locations again on Wednesday. Red Flag Warning will go into effect for these locations around noon to 2 PM this afternoon for abundant lightning and very dry fuels. Fire growth potential is very high for any new starts. Looking ahead to the end of the week and into this weekend, temperatures continue to remain very hot with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Models have been showing the potential for renewed thunderstorm activity for the last few days starting as early as Friday. Once again southerly flow of monsoonal energy will help feed the potential for thunderstorms across northern California and possibly southern Oregon. Stay tuned as this information becomes more ironed out over the next few days. The bottom line is we will remain hot and dry well into the extended.
Posted on: Tue, 08 Jul 2014 13:19:06 +0000