The recent flurry of activity from the No campaign, with Tory ministers taking the lead in deploying a series of ‘don’t even think about it’ assaults on currency and the economy, was the natural reaction to the steady increase in Yes support that followed the launch of the White Paper. The narrowing of the polls was enough to set Westminster alarm bells ringing and unleash this latest No barrage of negativity. Clearly, anything and everything will be said or done to try to stop the Yes momentum. We saw the same in previous votes when an earlier generation of No politicians tried to deny us devolution. Whether it works or not, we won’t know for definite until September, but I’m confident that people in Scotland will see through Westminster’s campaign tactics. After all, we have heard much of it before and rejected it. The approach adopted should teach us one very important lesson: the Westminster establishment reacts and responds to growing Yes support. That puts an enormous amount of power into the hands of the people of Scotland. The No campaign’s response to the movement in the polls was to deploy, with renewed intensity, the same old ‘can’t do’ arguments. But even they know that threat is not enough. In the long run, it does not make any electoral sense to tell voters in Scotland that we are not up to the job of running a country or to rely on exaggerated scares that crumble under common sense scrutiny. Westminster’s aim to obliterate Yes support with a whirlwind of fear has failed to deliver in the way they expected and that is why we are starting to hear a lot more about the offers, the carrots alongside the stick. And, have no doubt, stronger Yes support means bigger and better offers. Right now, excluding don’t knows, Yes support is averaging above 40 per cent. If Yes support continues to grow then the pressure will be on the No parties to offer something more worthwhile than current plans. That is, full powers over taxation and welfare, wages, energy and employment – the powers to make real and meaningful improvements to people’s financial security and standards of living. This has to be the minimum threshold given that it has the support of as many as 2/3rds of voters (including people like me who want a Yes because it gives us all this and more, with the particular bonus of additional powers to enable us to get rid of Trident and represent ourselves at the top table in the EU). The signs are that Labour’s leaders in Scotland will fall way short of offering the sort of enhancements to our Parliament that most voters, including most Labour voters, want. There is even the possibility that the Tories will come forward with a more substantial more powers offering. What an indictment that would be. Of course, the official party proposals have not yet been revealed, but already we are seeing the outriders, including former PM Gordon Brown’s smoke and mirrors construction of a ‘grand plan’. Nevertheless, it is somewhat encouraging to see even Mr. Brown move closer to the Yes position each time he intervenes. My best guess is that the Labour leadership will seek to deliver something that is broad but shallow – lots of small transfers to give the impression that this is DevoMore, but with out any real substance: a case of never mind the quality, feel the width. Thankfully, though, the Scottish Labour Party is much more than the leadership. A threadbare offering, that does not meet the needs of Scotland, will quite rightly be dismissed as not good enough – not only by people like me, but by substantial figures within the Labour movement. That is because any half-way decent response to the dismantling of our welfare state or the squeeze on household incomes by Westminster or the use of zero-hours contracts can never be to leave the substance of taxation or wages, the labour market or welfare in those same hands. Scotland is on a journey, but it remains to be seen how far we will travel with this next, crucial step. A Yes in September gives us clarity. It brings Scotland’s long constitutional debate to a conclusion. That, in itself, is positive because we can focus on using the new powers, rather than just winning them. A No means a decade, maybe more, in this same constitutional limbo, without any guarantee that the bare minimum change we need will be delivered. It is not that campaigning for constitutional reform stops us from doing other things, as free personal care, the council tax freeze, record low crime rates, the smoking ban, land reform or even the construction of the Forth Crossing demonstrate. Indeed, many of these things only happened because we did spend the eighties and nineties demanding stage one of Home Rule. So, it is not a question of Scotland on pause - the reality is that Scotland has been and is moving forward. The risk is of another wasted decade, with the wrong hands on the levers we need to make a difference in Scottish life. If we have responsibility for all aspects of welfare policy in two years time, how much more we can achieve than if we have to hang on for far longer to get too few, and too limited, powers. Strong Yes support, between now and September, can keep the pressure up and push the Westminster parties to concede more than they would wish. But only a Yes in September keeps Scotland’s future in our own hands, which is so much better than waiting, fingers crossed, for Westminster. Only a Yes guarantees the change for the better that we all know, in our hearts and in our minds, Scotland needs. Stephen Noons Aritcle appeared in yesterdays Sunday Times
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 08:43:48 +0000
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