There is a Slight Risk for severe storms in Southwest Illinois for this afternoon through the overnight hours. That is where the best threat for severe storms will be but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across all of Southern Illinois and Southwest Indiana. Damaging Winds and Large Hail will be the biggest threats. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE KS/OK BORDER AREA TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. ...KS/OK BORDER AREA TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM N/NE EXTENT OF SLIGHT RISK-EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBS NEAR THE MID-MS VALLEY OWING TO THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY SAMPLED IN 18Z ILX RAOB. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 00Z APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 17Z LMN RAOB SAMPLED A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION...ROBUST HEATING ACROSS WRN OK SHOULD YIELD NEGLIGIBLE MLCIN BY EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE POTENTIAL BUOYANCY WILL FAVOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS THAT MAY QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO W/E-ORIENTED CLUSTERS GIVEN MEAN FLOW PARALLELING THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SEE MCD 1657 FOR NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION. ...LOWER MI... SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH PORTION OF QLCS OVER NRN LOWER MI WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE LINE PROGRESSES OVER LK HURON. FARTHER S...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES NE FROM UPPER MI. VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LESS ORGANIZED AND MAY ONLY YIELD A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND RISK. SEE MCD 1656 FOR NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FORMED AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE-RATE BUT SCANTLY BUOYANT AIR MASS. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD FOSTER MODEST ORGANIZATION WITH A LOW-END SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL RISK THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. SEE MCD 1658 FOR NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION.
Posted on: Mon, 01 Sep 2014 21:05:03 +0000
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