There is some talk about the models and their differences RE: tomorrow nights snow potential. Here is some insight as to where we stand now... --Jared Technical analysis of this storm: Models are really struggling with the temperature structure of the rain/snow event Sunday night. When you look at the big picture there is a good chance a band of locally heavier snow is possible (3-5) just north of the mean rain/snow line. In fact part of the reason the models have indicated more moisture is available is because of a tightened and somewhat warmer temperature gradient... making for a difficult forecast. Latest European, NAM, NMM, and ARW data suggest such a heavier band happens immediately north of the Ohio River. GFS, Canadian, and high resolution GFS models take this potential along I-71 and into the metro. Taking a look at the trend... you see a pattern of the models pushing the higher totals slightly north over time. Canadian and even hi res GFS do seem to be suffering a cold bias of late. Taking this all into account places the area of greatest potential snow tallies just north of Louisville at this time. 1-3 is our initial call for areas adjacent to the river including the metro. Lesser amounts farther south. Yes... this forecast may change. As model consensus builds our forecast confidence will concurrently. We will have an entire new suite of data to assess this evening and we will update the forecast on our 11pm news and website.
Posted on: Sat, 15 Nov 2014 19:16:02 +0000
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