These are first few pages of a 18 page report I was sent from Yes Carfin & Newarthill. Anyone want a copy sent PM me your email address. SCOTTISH ATLANTIC MARGIN OIL AND GAS : `THE GAME-CHANGER` William Cameron McLaughlin BA(Hons), MBA One of the favourite mantras from certain quarters is that Scottish oil and gas reserves are ``declining``. Nothing could be further from the truth. Scottish North Atlantic oil and gas, Scottish Atlantic Margin oil and gas, Scottish west coast oil and gas – whatever you choose to call it, is a major political and economic game-changer for Scotland. This article has two main aims. One, to establish if there is potential for oil and gas in the Scottish Atlantic Margin, and two, to establish the locations and quantity of any oil and gas existing in the Scottish Atlantic Margin. Where possible, the writer has tried to keep the technical jargon to a minimum, but not in instances where this would affect the integrity of the article. The geographical limits of the Scottish Atlantic Margin are defined within the Scottish-Irish marine boundary to the south, the Scottish-Faroese marine boundary to the north, and the Scottish-international waters marine boundary (off Rockall) to the west. Contained within this boundary is the Faroese-Shetland Basin (which contains the massive Foinaven, Schiehallion, Clair, Suilven, Strathmore, Solan, and Victory oil and gas fields, etc); Rockall Basin, North East Rockall Basin; West Lewis Basin; Flannan Basin; West Flannan Basin; Hatton Basin; Barra Basin; Stanton Basin; and Sea of the Hebrides – Little Minch Basin. These Basins contain the Eocene fan complexes and Eocene sand beds likely to contain significant quantities of commercially recoverable oil and gas. The Rosemary Bank also contains an Eocene fan complex. In addition, the article will examine the likely prospects for oil and gas reserves in the Scottish Firths, namely, in the Solway Firth Basin, the Firth of Clyde, Moray Firth, Dornoch Firth, Firth of Tay, Firth of Forth, Cromarty Firth, Firth of Lorn, and the Pentland, Westray, Stronsay, and North Ronaldsay Firths and the approaches to these Firths. For the purposes of this article, the writer has included these estuary (Firth) Basins within the geographical definition of offshore oil and gas reserves (DECC defines estuaries as onshore reserves). The Solway, Clyde and Lorn Firths will be included under the banner of Scottish west coast oil and gas. The prospects for oil and gas reserves in the Scottish island outliers (eg Arran, Mull, Skye, Islay, Barra, St Kilda, etc), will also be considered. In addressing the article`s first aim, namely, to establish if there is potential for oil and gas in the Scottish Atlantic Margin, it is the writers intention to remain as objective as possible in undertaking analysis, quoting from sources of expert evidence, rather than depending on anecdotal opinion, hearsay and rumour. For comparative purposes, the writer will examine east coast estuary oil and gas potential in the Dornoch Firth, Cromarty Firth, Moray Firth, Firth of Tay, and Firth of Forth. In a communication with the writer in 2013, Professor Dorrick Stow, Head of the Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh, stated, ``West of Scotland, the sedimentary basins are much closer to those of the North Sea and are again, a fantastic location for oil and gas``. Professor Stow added, ``The major basins (often marine to quite deep marine) are filled with thick sedimentary successions – this helps produce and then reservoir the oil and gas. Tectonic movements have caused the structural changes (such as anticlines) that can help in forming (oil) traps. There are sedimentary successions on some of the western islands, in and around the Moray Firth and Firth of Forth``. In another communication with a Mr S Fisher, a retired oil industry executive, who was involved in seismic work in the Scottish Atlantic Margin, he stated, ``The biggest oil-field in the world lies to the west of Lewis, but would be very difficult to work (but not impossible) since it has been shattered and fragmented by ancient volcanic action. But it is there``. Chris Baker, Energy Institute, London (January 2014) stated, ``There are enormous reserves, proven and estimated, west of Shetland (Faroese-Shetland Basin) and the potential is for more to be discovered (bear in mind that Shetland is part of Scotland, and these ``enormous`` oil and gas reserves are located in Scottish waters). Norman Smith, Managing Director of Smith Rea Associates, concurs with this optimism when he stated, ``If the present mood of optimism proves justified, much of the UK Continental Shelf exploration and development activity over the next fifteen years will be on the (Scottish) Atlantic Margin``. Smith goes on to state (and note particularly his production estimate for the number of barrels per day (b/d), ``Production over the next ten years (from the Scottish Atlantic Margin) might range up to one million barrels per day, if companies are willing to invest $1520 billion to achieve such levels``. Sarah Blackman, 21st June, 2012, cited evidence of the oil majors interest in the Scottish Atlantic Margin where she stated that, ``The BP North Uist well, about 125 km to the NW of the Islands, is at a depth of nearly 1300m. Chevron has also expressed an interest in drilling undeveloped areas of the Margin (Scottish Atlantic Margin). An article in the Argyll News, October 13th, 2011, titled `Wild West Frontier`: UK Government to decide on high risk BP well off Shetland`, stated, ``The proposed enterprise in sinking this well (the North Uist well)…….is more evidence of BPs determination to try to crack the `Atlantic Frontier`, the oil rich area west of Shetland, running out to the Rockall Trough and Plateau, and including the St Kilda Archipelago``. The article continues, ``…….already exploration and some production wells are operating in fields within the `Atlantic Frontier` (Foinaven, Schiehallion, Clair, and Suilven, etc), which together form the area known technically as the ``West 5 of Shetland`` (in the Faroese-Shetland basin)``. The article in the Argyll News notes that. ``Oil companies are being offered thousands of square miles of the sea bed of the `Atlantic Frontier`, including areas only 25 miles from St Kilda. In July 1999, the UK Government gave the green light for an oil rig to start drilling west of the Outer Hebrides, just 75 miles from St Kilda``. The web site (kilda.org.uk/oil-exploration.htm) provides technical geological evidence of the existence of reserves of oil and gas in the Scottish Atlantic Margin province. The information on the site states, ``The line of north-westerly trending grey troughs running from off Ireland to northern Norway marks an abortive split between Europe and Greenland some 110 million years ago, when marine micro-plankton formed the potential source rock for future oilfields``. Information on the web site continues with further geological evidence of oil and gas reserves in the Scottish Atlantic Margin, ``56 million years ago, St Kilda was one of six major volcanoes lying west of the uplifted Hebrides-Shetland Platform. Erosion at this time produced the sands that now form the oil reservoirs in many Scottish North Sea and Scottish Atlantic Margin hydrocarbon fields. Since this volcanic uplift, the Atlantic Margin has subsided. Source rocks are now so deeply buried along the troughs that gas has been generated, as in the gas fields of the Scottish North Sea, whereas oil was generated from the terraces, which did not subside so much``. Part of the same web site deals with the number of wells drilled in the UK part of the Atlantic Margin. This may surprise some readers as news of this never seems to reach the media and wider public domain (and if it does, it is conveniently `buried`). The web site states, ``More than 100 exploration wells have been drilled in the UK part of the Atlantic Margin……BP discovered the Foinaven and Schiehallion oilfields to the west of Shetland in 1992/93. The Foinaven field contains between 250-600 million barrels of recoverable oil; Schiehallion 340 million; and Loyal 85 million``. Earlier in the article a Mr S Fisher stated that, ``The biggest oilfield in the world lies to the west of Lewis``. Additional evidence to support this comes from the Schlumberger web site. They ran seismic survey sweeps from their survey ship. These sweeps were extensive west of the Hebrides. As the evidence mounts for the existence of VERY SIGNIFICANT reserves of oil and gas in the Scottish Atlantic Margin province, it adds validity and credence to Fisher`s assertion. Howard Johnson, Derek Ritchie, and Bob Gatliff in a British Geological Survey (BGS) Research Paper, Edinburgh, 2007, stated, ``……the BGS has made….strong contributions….to advance the geo-scientific understanding of the UK Atlantic Margin. A strategic driver for this research is the potential for further significant discoveries of commercially exploitable oil and gas. Research has focused on Post- Break Up Compression Structures along the NE part of the Atlantic Margin. This compression has contributed to the development of numerous large anticline and dome structures within the Margin, such as the Alpin Dome, which are important as they form potential trapping structures for undiscovered oil and gas resources``. Faroe Petroleum CEO Graham Stewart stated (The Herald, 26/3/14) that the ``UK Atlantic Margin is an area of continued focus``. Faroe has made two finds in the Scottish Atlantic Margin, including the Glenlivet gas field west of Shetland. The operator of the field, Dong, will work on a Development Plan for the field during 2014. Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer of Royal Dutch Shell, referring to the Clair and Schiehallion Projects in the Scottish Atlantic Margin, states they (the Projects) are ``Great growth prospects`` and an important part of their portfolio for a ``Very long time to come``. No sign of ``declining`` Scottish oil and gas here. If the prospecting success of the Faroe-Shetland Basin can be replicated in other geological basins of the Scottish Atlantic Margin, then Scotland is dealing with enormous and very significant reserves of, and revenues from, Scottish Atlantic Margin oil and gas. Further evidence of the potential of the Scottish Atlantic Margin for oil and gas is provided by Howard Johnson, Team Leader, Continental Margins, BGS, Edinburgh, who stated to the writer on 6th February 2014 that, ``There is no doubt that there are considerable reserves of oil and gas in the British North Atlantic sector, and this is evidenced by for example, present day oil production from the major Foinaven, Schiehallion, and Clair fields (there are others). These producing fields are located in the Faroe-Shetland Basin region, west of Shetland. This is an area of active exploration and further finds and developments might be expected in the future``, and, ``An extensive Paleogene Igneous Province is well documented on the conjugate continental margins of NW Europe…..including the British North Atlantic sector. That there is a working petroleum system in at least parts of the UK Atlantic Frontier areas can be demonstrated by finds such as the Benbecula gas discovery in the NE Rockall Basin``. The writer will now deal with the oil and gas potential of the Scottish estuaries (Firths). For the purposes of this article, I have classified the Scottish Firths as an offshore oil and gas resource (the DECC classify them as onshore). Evidence that there may be commercially recoverable oil and gas in the Scottish Solway Basin is based on positive geological conditions in the area. G Mann, then Director, Dumfries & Galloway Council, stated, ``The geological conditions (for oil and gas) are conducive. The sea (in the Scottish Solway Basin) is in the same strata as Morecambe Bay, which has the second largest gas field in Britain`s continental shelf``. The possibility of the existence of oil and gas in the Scottish Solway Basin will be examined when dealing with the second aim later in the article. The UK MoD dumped an enormous amount of munitions at Beaufort`s Dyke, in the Scottish Solway Firth. This is the largest marine munitions dump in Western Europe. A TRANSCO gas pipeline runs right through the middle of the heaviest concentration of explosive munitions in the Dyke. This MoD explosive munitions dump will obstruct oil companies from drilling on or near Beaufort`s Dyke. Similar to the Firth of Clyde, the activities and behaviour of the UK MoD has obstructed the activities of oil companies in certain parts of the Scottish Solway Firth. The UK MoD has also dumped explosive munitions, chemical warfare waste and radioactive waste in parts of the Scottish Atlantic Margin, in the approaches to the Clyde, off Aberdeen, and in the Firth of Forth (the writer is in possession of the dumping coordinates). There is fairly strong evidence from senior political sources and from a senior British oil company executive that commercially recoverable reserves of oil and gas exist in the Scottish Firth of Clyde and the approaches to the Firth of Clyde from the Scottish Atlantic Margin. George Younger, the then Scottish Secretary of State, in a letter to The Times newspaper in 1983, stated, ``The oil companies are playing their cards pretty close to their chests, but they are expecting something exploitable (in the Firth of Clyde area)``. Another statement by a senior British politician, Labour Peer, Lord Foulkes, would appear to confirm the geological possibility of major deposits of oil and gas in the Firth of Clyde, when he stated, ``A constituent approached me (when MP for Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley) with draft maps which showed the geology of the Firth of Clyde indicated major deposits of oil and gas``. Further convincing evidence for the existence of commercially recoverable oil and gas reserves in the Firth of Clyde comes from the statement of a hard headed and well respected, senior British oil executive, Ian Clark, then Joint Managing Director, Britoil, 1984, when he stated, ``We (Britoil) would not go to the expense of conducting further investigations if we did not believe there was some chance of making a discovery (of oil and gas in the Firth of Clyde). The possibility of the existence of oil and gas in the Firth of Clyde will be examined when dealing with the second aim later in the article. We know that the geological conditions are conducive for reserves of oil and gas in the Scottish Moray Firth (oil and gas is currently being successfully extracted in that location), and in the Scottish Firth of Forth. It is very likely that the right geological conditions also exist in the Scottish Solway Firth and the Scottish Firth of Clyde. Indeed, oil industry analysts estimated a 1 in 5 chance of finding oil and gas in the Solway Firth (the odds in the Scottish North Sea were 1 in 10). The MoD has, of course, put a blanket ban on drilling for oil and gas in the Firth of Clyde and its approaches due, allegedly to the operations of nuclear submarines, in and out of the Faslane base. It is tempting to conjecture the possibility of oil and gas in the Scottish Firth of Lorn, further up the west coast, in the approaches to the Firth from the Scottish Atlantic Margin, and in the approaches to Oban. The writer found no hard evidence for this possibility, and stated at the outset that the article would be based on evidence giving reasonable cause for the existence of commercially recoverable oil and gas reserves in specified Scottish locations. The Firth of Lorn will unfortunately, have to wait until another time. Other possible Scottish estuary locations and approaches are the Firth of Tay, Dornoch Firth, and the Cromarty Firth. Dr Phil Richards, Manager, Hydrocarbons, BGS, Edinburgh, in a communication with the writer (March 2014), stated, ``Many of the Scottish Firths are underlain by sedimentary rocks potentially capable of generating or trapping hydrocarbons……there have been discoveries in the Inner Moray Firth, the Beatrice oil-field for example``. The keys are ``prospectivity`` and ``commercially viable quantities``. Both ticked the right boxes in the Moray Firth oil and gas exploration activity, and may do so in the other Scottish Firths, particularly the Forth, Clyde, and Solway Firths. Oil and gas may be present in the Scottish Firths, but not in the quantities to make it commercially attractive to extract it. The major oil companies usually leave around 40% of the oil behind in any given field. That’s where the smaller oil companies enter the picture to extract the remaining oil and gas from the field. If the Moray Firth is a `model` for prospectivity in the other Scottish Firths, then there could be significant quantities of oil and gas still to be found and recovered in the Scottish Firths. Whatever extraction `model` is used will depend on the quantities of oil and gas located in each Scottish Firth. It is difficult to believe that some-one, somewhere does not have knowledge of the estimated quantities of oil and gas reserves in the Scottish Firths. Before moving on to the article`s second aim, I want to pause for a moment to discuss the infrastructure and logistics required by oil companies to service the oil and gas rigs likely to operate west of Scotland, in the Scottish Atlantic Margin. Prestwick Airport, currently owned by the Scottish Government, is well placed to act as a helicopter base to service the Atlantic rigs, west of Scotland. The airport is fog-free, has good communications and infrastructure, room for expansion, and the air space required for helicopter take-offs and landings. It is not as busy as Glasgow and Edinburgh airports, and long term, the helicopter traffic could be a major financial boost for this Scottish west coast airport, located near the sea. One only has to look at the success of Aberdeen airport in servicing the oil and gas rigs in the Scottish North Sea. There are various sea ports along the west coast of Scotland which could be used by vessels servicing the Atlantic rigs, west of Scotland. The Scottish west coast ports would probably require considerable upgrading and expansion to deal with the vessel traffic volumes necessary to service the oil and gas rigs in the Scottish Atlantic Margin. The port at Oban is one possibility, the Clyde another, while expansion has already taken place at the port of Mallaig. Mallaig is served by the West Coast Rail Line, which is well maintained. The road between Fort William and Mallaig has also been upgraded. Cairnryan (deep water) and Lochinver ports are other possible contenders. The Skye Bridge and the Kylesku Bridge were built to replace ferry links. These bridges were no arbitrary acts of construction. Together with port upgrades, they are part of a long term strategic transport infrastructure plan to explore for oil and gas off the Scottish west coast. Exploratory oil and gas drills have already taken place onshore and offshore Skye and in the Little Minch. Kishorn, the deep water area located on the Scottish west coast, was once utilised to build rigs. It could be reactivated to do the same again. The Loch Kishorn/Loch Carron area is well placed to service the Scottish Atlantic Margin. There is a shortage of rigs for the Scottish North Sea and either Kishorn or the Clyde yards could be used for rig construction and fabrication, including unmanned flotation buoy recovery systems. The Kishorn Fabrication Yard was developed in the 1970s by Howard Doris, as a manufacture and fabrication yard for oil platforms. Loch Kishorn has almost unlimited depth for construction purposes at 80m (262ft). In the former construction site the Ninian Central Platform at over 600,000 tonnes, is still one of the largest man made moveable objects ever built. There is a proposal to create (at Kishorn) a ``hub for the offshore renewable energy sector``, constructing concrete bases for offshore wind turbines. The blades and turbines could also be manufactured and assembled at Kishorn. This proposal is a 50/50 joint venture between Ferguson Transport (Spean Bridge) Ltd and Leiths (Scotland) Ltd (Scotsman 13/3/14). The door should be kept ajar for rig and unmanned buoy construction.at Kishorn as there are not a lot of options for this on the Scottish west coast It is not my intention to digress too far on this discussion as it is not the main purpose of the article. Nevertheless, these issues will have to be considered and forward planned at some point by the Scottish Government.
Posted on: Wed, 28 May 2014 07:56:16 +0000
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