This election in Antigua and Barbuda has reinforced one central thing which I had come to learn about politics: Politics is about people, grassroots people. They decide your destiny. Listen to them and you will know your fate. In collecting information so as to give predictions as to what would have been the result I spoke informally to a wide cross section of persons in all the constituencies. I traveled to all the constituencies except Barbuda and tried to ground with the people and understand their feelings. I got two distinct feelings when I spoke to the grassroots people as opposed to the middle class. The grassroots people were exceedingly confident of an ABLP win, they were energised (as I had written about since last November) and waiting to make their mark. Many of them really believed in a clean sweep and many more were confident of a landslide. That point was really driven home to me on the afternoon of election day when one person remarked to me that their sense was that if there was not an ABLP win there would be an election riot in Antigua for the first time. The middle class folk, those who had jobs and knew times were not as good as they were before but were getting by and pressing on seemed to have thought that the election could go either way and that the result would have been close. From very early on I heard that Chanlah Codrington was in trouble and Michael S. Browne was making waves. I kept my finger on that constituency and it was clear that the momentum kept building. Codrington made what I believe was a fatal mistake when he intimated that he did not really need to campaign as his record spoke for itself. I projected a win for Browne based on what the people in All Saints West were telling me at the street corners and on the roadsides and Codringtons suicidal boast. Persons on the ground in St Johns City East kept telling me repeatedly that Harold Lovell was in trouble and that Melford Nicholas was going to take him down. I gave it consideration and kept talking to more and more people but did not heed the feelings on the ground and rather went with the numbers and statistics. Analysis also seemed to have favoured Lovell but all analysis was rendered naught by the people, whose convictions, ultimately matter most. I also kept hearing consistently that Samantha Marshall was making waves in St Mary South. I went to the constituency three times in the last week and made observations and spoke to folks. I confirmed that Marshall was indeed making an impact but I thought that Hilson Baptiste was so entrenched after being the representative for 20 years that the job to dislodge him would be a colossal one. It was indeed colossal but with the people on her side Marshall pulled off a memorable and historic victory. She is now the first female representative elected under Labour. Cliche warning: there certainly will be many more, there will however, never be another first. I humbly aplogise to her and Nicholas for counting them out. The word from the ordinary folk in the former Prime Minister Baldwin Spencers constituency also kept telling me that the PM was in trouble and could lose his seat. I thought this to be unthinkable. Once again the people were correct as the former PM only narrowly held on to his seat. Many of the people who I spoke with in this constituency are Guyanese and they particularly felt betrayed by the UPP government. Many of them have been living in Antigua for upwards of the 7 year residency requirement (to vote) and have either been outrightly refused when applying for citizenship or are being given a runaround. This was one of their top two complaints with the other, like the rest of the nation, being jobs. Londel Benjamin has been an unsung hero and having come from the political wilderness to as close as he did to unseating the political leader of the opposing party and a sitting Prime Minister is a thousand feathers in his cap. He has effectively ended the political career of the Prime Minister, even after he (Benjamin) would have lost. It was clear that E.P. Chet Greene was going to prevail in St Paul. This was perhaps the easiest to predict of the seats which were in play. Though it seemed close most times, it was always evident that Greene was ahead and that the constituency seemed to have had enough of Eleston Adams who they regarded as having failed to perform. Jacqui Quinn-Leandro was a certain shocker. From his comments to ABS TV even the winner Dean Jonas was surprised by the overwhelming support that he got, especially in certain areas such as New Winthorpes. Had I given greater credence to many social media posts which I saw from persons living in New Winthorpes I should have properly projected that there was movement there. I was particularly surprised at the posts from persons who I have always known to be political neutral. I saw persons posting that they were fed up of the UPP and felt used by them. St Georges is known to be blue through and through. That it has fallen so spectacularly, purely on the verdict of the ordinary people is a lesson in politics for Quinn-Leandro who many thought was immovable. Though he has won Jonas would be wise to recognize that he was not as sharp as he could have been, that he, perhaps more than most, benefited significantly from the national swing away from the UPP and that he must perform exceedingly well to consolidate the confidence reposed in him and be in a position of strength when he returns to the polls in five years time. It is without question that his political stock has, at the very least, quadrupled in the 2014 elections. Colin James, a man who has been a colleague for well over a decade, also connected with the people of another thunderously blue constituency. What should have been a landslide victory for the UPP had Joanne Massiah sweating til the last box was counted. James performance as a humble, grassroots and indigenous politician should be highly acclaimed by his party and the nation. Though James did not win the seat he has won legions of supporters in the constituency and admirers beyond the constituency. His future is bright but he achieves such stature on the basis of the will of the people and he must always be cognizant that in addition to to whom much is given much is expected that just as the people have placed their confidence in him, so too can they withdraw same should he not perform in whatever portfolio he is granted. He must double his work in the constituency to ensure the results are in his favour next time around. When he returns to the ballot in five years he must have both consolidated his support and expand his base. He has proven that with the people by your side it is not impossible to topple any politician in Antigua, however strong their support may appear to be.
Posted on: Fri, 13 Jun 2014 17:43:40 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015