Thursday Morning Weather - July 18, 2013 From Tim Hannagan, compliments of WxRisk This statement is being issued at 1000 EDT JULY 18 and based upon a total review of ALL the Model data and surface reports. RIGHT NOW The Thursday morning national radar shows very little activity happening ... and all of the shower thunderstorm activity is out of the Midwest and Plains regions. There is a line of showers and thunderstorms over Lake Superior and far Northern Minnesota front that is associated with a stalled front. There is also a cluster of thunderstorms over Southern Mississippi and far Southwest Texas that extends into Southern New Mexico. nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php WHAT HAPPENED WEDNESDAY? WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS weather.unisys/surface/temp_hi.gif Temperatures were hot yesterday across most the Midwest but not excessively so. There were some 70s over Northeast MT and northern ND ... 80s over western ND and northern MN, and over western OK, eastern COL, western KS and the western half of TX ... Low 90s over southern MN, southeast SD, eastern NEB, eastern KS, eastern OK, eastern TX, LA and over MO, IA, WI, MI, OH, northern IND and KY ... 95-100 over ARK, TN, central and southern ILL, southwest IND, MS, and AL. RAINFALL JULY 17 - 18 Rainfall WEDNESDAY 0700 CDT to THURSDAY 0700 CDT. All of the central and Upper Plains and Midwest were dry. There was widespread light to moderate rain over western OK and all of TX ... 75% coverage of 0.10 to 1.50". In addition, there was moderate to heavy rain with 50% coverage over northern MS and northern AL that expanded into 60% coverage over western SC, western NC and southwest VA. Amounts varied from 0.10 to 2.00". weather.unisys/surface/prec_day.gif SUMMARY: Models are wetter next week over much of the Midwest. 11-15 DAY looks very non threatening. DAY 1 - 5 / JULY 18 - 22 The THURSDAY morning weather map shows large HOT and Humid HIGH pressure covering much of the central Plains and all of the Midwest into the Northeast US. There is a stalled front running from Wyoming into South Dakota then across Northern Minnesota into the Northern Great Lakes. The overnight weather models are weaker with the cold front and its initial rains over the upper Plains and the WCB. However over the ECB the various weather models of still dropping modern rainfall with a cold front passage Friday and Friday night. The various weather models all agree that this cold front is going to stall more or less a west then east direction cutting across the Midwest. This will allow for significant showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday, Monday night and Tuesday. This LINK shows rainfall over the Midwest from Sunday Night into Tuesday evening. The coverage is about 70% coverage of 0.50 to 1.50" from eastern NEB to WVA and eastern OH. images1.earthsat/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/00/pcpsums/0072/ECM_00_opUS_PS_0120.png 6-10 DAY / JULY 23 - 27 In the 6-10 DAY, all the models continue to show a pretty wet pattern for a good portion of next week. The fun and installed across the Midwest and when that happens in late July and August it often produces a pretty wet pattern. This LINK shows 0Z GFS RAINFALL coverage in the 6-10 DAY ... 75% coverage of 0.50 TO 3.00". images1.earthsat/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/pcpsums/0120/GFS_00_opUS_PS_0240.png This LINK shows 0Z ECMWF RAINFALL coverage in the 6-10 DAY ... 70% coverage of 0.50 to 2.00" but the rains extend into KS and more of MO. images1.earthsat/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/00/pcpsums/0120/ECM_00_opUS_PS_0240.png 11-15 DAY / JULY 28 - AUGUST 1 The models remain in strong agreement that there is no sign of any heat return to the Midwest in the 11-15 day. Of course the key issue is going to be the amount of rain and that will be determined by where the heat ridge sets up over the southwest states and lower Plains. Right now the temperatures look pretty moderate for most of the Midwest and there are some rain chances. The pattern looks pretty wet over eastern WT and COL, all of ND, SD, MN, WI, most of NEB and Northern IA, and near normal over the rest of the Midwest.
Posted on: Thu, 18 Jul 2013 18:21:42 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015