Trinidad and Tobago Newsday Brace for ‘wetter’ rainy season By Lara Pickford-Gordon Thursday, June 6 2013 The TT Meteorological Services Division (MSD) is advising citizens to be prepared and vigilant because a “wetter than normal” rainy season is forecast for this year. Although this may vary across the country, available information suggests a greater chance of “above normal rainfall” in north, east, central, south-east, south Trinidad, and Tobago. While the normal average is 1300 mm, above normal is 1500 mm. Speaking at a media briefing hosted by the MSD at Hyatt Regency, Port-of-Spain yesterday, climatologist Kenneth Kerr said the increased rainfall can cause severe weather events — flooding, landslides, large rivers overflowing their banks, damage to roofs and weak structures. In addition, he said, “vector borne diseases, associated with increased temperature, and humidity agriculture crops becoming swamped and agriculture pests.” Kerr presented photographs of flooding which occurred in 2010 when there was an above average rainfall. He presented photographs of flooded Port-of-Spain and Caroni River overflowing its banks and the collapse of a part of Solomon Hochoy Highway. During the Question and Answer session, Kerr said it only took one event to cause catastrophic outcomes. Kerr said rainfall last August had the country in “hysteria” and he appealed for the public to remember past events. “No one can speak specifically as to where it will impact until the event is mere hours or minutes away. Be vigilant at all times,” he said. For the first time, the Met Service has provided a temperature forecast to assist planners and decision-makers in “weather sensitive sectors” including agriculture, construction and health. “We are forecasting normal day time temperatures above normal or warmer than normal,” Kerr said. For June-August there will “above normal” rain while for September to November there should be normal rainfall in Trinidad and “above normal” in Tobago. Kerr emphasised that the forecasts provided were for the sub-seasonal period, and month to month variations can occur. All the factors influencing day to day weather were not included. He assured that the Met Service was prepared to give timely and early warnings to the public and the radar which the MSD acquired would be fully functional for the peak of the Hurricane Season, August through October. Kerr said no definitive statement can be made about which storms will reach land. “That can only be said when a storm is within hours of landfall,” he said However based on data and information analysed the Hurricane Season will be “above normal” with an 80 percent chance of six named storms developing in the Atlantic. The area of particular concern is an area east of Trinidad (15 degrees north and 61 degrees longitude) where weather system develops. Kerr said, “we expect a 65 percent chance of three of these storms becoming a hurricane while in the area. We are very hopeful before they get into the vicinity the systems will curve northward and go away from TT.” Christopher St Clair, of the Tobago Meteorological Office, said while people keep saying “God is a Trini” when storms and hurricanes turn away and do not make landfall, there is a scientific explanation called the Coriolis effect. St Clair said, “Tropical storms could travel in a path that pass over TT as we saw with Ivan and Arthur.” He said Tobago was susceptible to tropical cyclones because as a small land mass systems could engulf the island. The most destructive part of the cyclone was the storm surge and consequent flooding, coastal erosion and destruction to property along coastlines. Meteorologist Paula Wellington underscored the role of media in informing the public and developing a “culture of preparedness.” The public is advised to visit metoffice.org.tt for information.
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 15:06:51 +0000
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