Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6: Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 3 3 4 TROP DEPRESSION 5 14 11 14 13 9 13 TROPICAL STORM 92 76 70 64 59 56 58 HURRICANE 4 8 16 19 25 32 25 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 7 14 16 21 27 22 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 2 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
Posted on: Thu, 25 Jul 2013 15:07:44 +0000
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