Tropical Update - Deadly surf peaking in California and still up on East Coast, and big waves now headed to Iceland - System still swirling over Gulf; has been making an attempt at developing further, but is fighting hostile atmospheric conditions - Gulf moisture surge Fri-Sat; possible western Caribbean / southwest Gulf system this weekend; tropical wave getting ready to move off Africa - Still no western Pacific tropical storms or typhoons; is a system near southern China but it is expected to move inland soon MARIE AND CRISTOBAL – OCEAN WAVES Marie and Cristobal have indirectly been deadly in the United States, with a person drowning on the West Coast and one on the East Coast, respectively, from waves generated by the hurricanes (and Cristobal’s interaction with a high pressure system). Surf in California is peaking, and it’s still up on the East Coast. Wave heights will be coming down on both coasts during the next couple days, but the rip current risk will persist for a while. Then models are consistent in predicting what will be ex-Cristobal, with its large wind circulation and large waves, heading for Iceland by Sunday. Also on the Texas coast from the Gulf system: COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 409 PM …HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS OCCURRING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST… .HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ON GULF FACING BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY…BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN The thing in the Gulf is still spinning, Tuesday night thunderstorms flared up, and the system was designated Invest 98L. Thunderstorms have increased some north of the low pressure center in the Gulf of Mexico but the system has very little time left over water to organize before moving inland across the Texas coast. A limited amount of thunderstorms would also limit the amount of rainfall, but there could be some locally heavy amounts in and around the lower Texas coast, especially if 98L just sits there for a while. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are flaring up over the southern Gulf near the Yucatan. That is the beginning of what is expected to be a surge of moisture toward the west-central Gulf Coast (upper Texas coast, Louisiana & Mississippi) by Friday and Saturday, increasing rainfall there and injecting wetness into the non-tropical system moving across the U.S. during the holiday weekend. Some model runs have tried to show a bit of spin too; none are yet predicting there to be much development circulation-wise. Something to keep an eye on just on general principle, given the time of year and location. Then, the combo of a disturbance near the northern coast of South America and what’s left of Invest 97L from the Atlantic could try to organize this weekend into early next week while on a track from the western Caribbean to the southwest Gulf. The atmosphere all the way from the western Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic is looking moist and a bit agitated. AFRICA The tropical wave and area of low pressure are getting ready to come off Africa, with thunderstorms at the leading edge already doing so. Models have been consistent in predicting it to eventually head out to sea. Still a ways off, and we’ll watch for any change in that. WESTERN PACIFIC Bands of thunderstorms are curved and swirling over the South China Sea; it looks as if there is only a limited window for development before moving into Vietnam. Will be some heavy rain though.
Posted on: Thu, 28 Aug 2014 12:04:59 +0000
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