Two wars, either way will get awry. Countries in chaos. The correct prediction is not to predict. We live through paradoxes. We have deep trouble with daily reports of bombings, civil strife, terror plots and so on and yet global markets and economies forge ahead without significant interruption and vigorously go upward on a whole. Markets dont panic. Front page seems unconnected to businesses. Rocket launches from hamas, gaza. Its all a puzzle. Stock market is higher on the day of war! Governments are afraid but markets are not! What explains the mismatch? Every weather disturbance is now storm of the century, every bomb is now explosive breaking news! It feels a very dangerous world. Here is the bottom line : the best estimates will be glorified when correct and vilified if wrong. You watch your own and lead yourself to your own absurd, rational or irrational predictions. You plan your date of attack, your date of entry and exit and that is it. Some get frustrated with fundamentalists massive quest to search for practical targets, some believe in resilient markets, resilient charts. The broad trend is up. challenges are real but consider them in context, our GDP is still growing 6-7%. We need to keep in mind we are a small part of a larger world out there. Whats happening there and on the ground? Do we have a deep structural basis for growth? There will always be periodic crises. Some are shocks, others metastasize into large wars. There are many forces- politics, economics and technology. Power shifts. Capital shifts- in Asia. There is no alternative - so they say- hence stocks rise. Everybody hates inflation of 4.9%, hence- stocks rise. Equities - no alternative.
Posted on: Thu, 07 Aug 2014 14:49:49 +0000
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