Uganda: Besigye, Sejusa, Muntu, Mao, Otunnu, Mbabazi Can they unite to beat Museveni? With nominations and campaigns just about eight months away as per the 2016 polls roadmap, early 2015 is when the serious contenders will be separated from the jokers and pretenders. The Badru Kigundu-led Electoral Commission has set to September 1 and September 18, 2015 as the dates for nominations and start of campaigns respectively and already about 10 potential presidential contenders have emerged. Some will drop off, and a few surprises might jump in but as the campaign year begins, the goings on in three political parties--the President Yoweri Museveni-led National Resistance Movement (NRM), Gen. Mugisha Muntu-led Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and Norbert Mao-led Democratic Party (DP) promise to be very exciting. These three are set to hold decisive meetings between February and May to hammer out preparations for the polls. Museveni appears to have moved ahead of the pack as he used the close of 2014 to defuse tensions within his party, kick out of top party organs his former ally Amama Mbabazi, who seemed the biggest threat, and therefore further consolidated his grip on the party ahead of 2016. In contrast, almost all of Musevenis potential competitors are loaded with self-destructive baggage. Amidst the cacophony of intra-party squabbling, political observers are already keenly marking out who of the potential competitors are serious contenders, pretenders and the jokers. For now, the list of potential contenders includes Gen. David Sejusa aka Tinyefuza, whose return from exile in London has generated a lot of activity that many including those in the opposition and NRM are watching closely. President Museveni is in, just as are former VP Gilbert Bukenya, and perennial rabble-rouser Capt. Ruhinda Maguru, who attempted to take on Museveni within the NRM in 2010 and has already printed posters. The Democratic Partys Norbert Mao, military giant Maj. Gen. Benon Biraaro, perennial contender Beti Olive Kamya, who heads Uganda Federal Alliance and Olara Otunnu, the president of the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) are in. Musevenis main challenger in the previous three elections, Kizza Besigye, is neither in nor out. Kizza Besigyes equivocation is worrisome for supporters of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) whose president; Maj Gen. Mugisha Muntu eyes 2016. The FDC broth might be complicated further if Muntus main challenger, Nandala Mafabi, joins the race. Everything is still speculative, but the held view is that if any of these potential contenders is to stand a chance, they need to forge alliances against President Yoweri Museveni, who not only boasts a 29-year spell of incumbency but also access to all state resources--the most prized being state coffers--the 2015 campaigns are set to be eventful. President Museveni closed 2014 even stronger as he wrested more powers over the running of his party. With Amama Mbabazi out of the post of Secretary General, Museveni does not appear to have any worries. Mbabazis supporters say he plans to take the matter over how he was replaced to court and to take on Museveni over the party leadership but critics do not see much in these efforts. The only visible activity from the former NRM Secretary General is that since he was ousted at the Dec.15 National Conference, he has maintained a public presence but remained cagey about his next move. During the partys Dec.13 National Executive Committee (NEC), Mbabazi threatened to sue the party over a technicality--that the party leadership did not give delegates the legally required 30 days to review the amendments that made his post appointive. But the smart politician that many see in him cannot hope to translate a suit against the NRM into his reinstatement as the head of the head of the Kyadondo Road party secretariat. At best, Mbabazi can use that suit to negotiate with Museveni or cause controversy from which he might hope to suck political capital and remain relevant on the Ugandan political scene. All this would, however, be totally out of character. Bukenya has said that Mbabazi will end up like Sejusa; in exile, and all parties have disparaged both Mbabazi and Sejusa. allafrica/stories/201501052348.html
Posted on: Tue, 06 Jan 2015 07:06:31 +0000
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