Understanding Cantor What a week it’s been. Seven days ago, Eric Cantor was the House Majority Leader, Phil Puckett was a State Senator, and Spain was the #1 soccer power in the world. Or not, in all cases. The demise of Cantor has been dissected in opinion pages from Los Angeles to Manhattan. Few, if any, of those commentators know much about Virginia. If you follow Virginia politics, the Cantor loss was a shock (nobody predicted it) but it did underscore a couple critical trends: 1. The Rise and Consolidation of the “Ron Paul” voter bloc. Back in 2008, a strange phenomenom appeared which was largely unreported by the regular media — the emergence of a significant bloc of (formerly) Republican voters attracted by the libertarian message of Paul and his focus on constitutional rights. These voters now make up a major voting bloc, especially in Republican strongholds in central Virginia. In 2013, many of them voted for Sarvis (who polled approx. 10% in the suburban Chesterfield, Henrico, and Hanover). That defection, along with backlash from the Federal shutdown in NoVA, maintained McAuliffe’s narrow victory margin. That “Sarvis” bloc was far too large to be ignored — yet apparently it was. That was clearly a mistake. Going forward, the block of independent/libertarian voters will need to be part of any Republican winning strategy (or even a Democratic one, depending). 2. The Importance of Being There. Needless to say, endless commercials extolling your intelligence and “influence” have very little meaning, unless voters have a chance to see you, feel you, and touch you. (h/t “The Who”). In looking at this race, I just can’t get over the fact that Eric Cantor was having a breakfast with lobbyists that morning, up in Capitol Hill. Even if you’re winning by thirty points, are you really so confident as to pretend that election day is just another day? Shouldn’t you be there, at a minimum, to thank your volunteers and people that came out to vote? The failure to show up for your own election reminds me of a case I had years ago. The plaintiff was the CEO of a company who looked at his watch and checked his cell phone during the trial. On the last day, he failed to show up. In my closing, I pointed at his empty place and made the point that he was too busy to be there with the jury. They returned the verdict for my client. Nobody is too busy to attend their own election. If so, they really shouldn’t be there.
Posted on: Sat, 14 Jun 2014 21:46:07 +0000
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