** Update On A Particular Storm Of Interest (Late Next Week) ** What a difference a few days make (behind the scenes). The model war continues and quite frankly itll continue for the next 3-5 days. First off, I urge everyone, whether your a weather hobbyist, weenie, proclaimed professional (you have your meteorologist certificate from 3rd grade when the local weather guy stopped by your class) or just the casual weather watcher (the majority), you will have to take these in-depth updates as informative guidance, until I officially say forecast. I see some all out childish rants (yes by Grownups) on other wx pages, but Ill have to say, Ive got some of the best followers/friends around!!! And thats no smoke blowing! With that said, lets get down to business. Depicted below youll notice two model runs from the GFS, One from todays 18z run and this past Wednesdays 12z run. Wow!!! What a difference a few days make. These depictions show why you can NOT model hug 7+ days out!! We are talking a complete change in the modeled atmospheric components and the system itself, from a snowstorm to nothing. Now you must note, the European and Canadian (12z) models continue to show something worth watching while the GFS has almost completely dropped this system off the face of the Earth. This is actually not uncommon at all for the GFS to do this 6-10 days out, however I was hoping the upgraded GFS would have some consistency (48hrs into the unveil, It sure doesnt appear to be much different than the old GFS). So basically this is a wait and see type event (as 90% of our Southern snow opportunities are). Also below, youll see the forecasted Jetstream as forecasted by the GFS (Also valid for next Friday). Two things to note, yes this has also changed. Notice the strong Pacific Jet streaming in bringing a more zonal look to the West Coast, this is not favorable because this doesnt allow a strong Ridge to build out West (In red youll see what Id like to see the Ridge look like). Also notice the non traditional Trough (for snow lovers) across the Central/Eastern CONUS, This is also NOT the best looking setup, however it also doesnt completely rule anything out... Now Ive used the GFS as the worst case scenario for snow freaks, so this doesnt mean much (just yet).... Summary: This is NOT over by a long shot even though well see some snow lovers jump off the we love MK train.I urge you to stick around because Ill have another update Sunday afternoon. Ill then discuss my latest thinking while comparing this current update with the new information, this will give you a full understanding of the storm potential/trend... MK
Posted on: Sat, 17 Jan 2015 01:06:25 +0000
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