WEATHER SYNOPSIS: ¤ Dec 05 at 1030pm until Dec 06 at 12PM ¤ ■ 1 Potential;0 LPA/s;1 Active;1 Threat ■ ☆ TODAYS FORECAST w/in PAR ⊙ TY 22W(Hagupit/Ruby) a VIOLENT & SLOW MOVING SYSTEM near 12n 128e, ALMOST STATIONARY to WEST SLOWLY with DEVASTATING WINDS & VERY INTENSE RAINS within 300km radius from the Center. Model shows LANDFALL on the 7th over Leyte Provinces & take the WESTWARD DIRECTION, passing to the North of Cebu to Panay from 7th to 8th, & Panay to Northern Palawan on the 8th to 9th, South China Sea on the 10th. ■ RED ALERT(Monitor & Evacuate, if necessary) → Northern Provinces of Caraga, Southern Provinces of Eastern Visayas, Provinces of Central Visayas & Western Visayas, Northern Palawan. ■ ORANGE ALERT(Monitor , Precaution & Prepare) → Rest of Eastern Visayas & Caraga, Northern Mindanao, MiMaRoPa. ☆ FORECAST IN NEXT 7 DAYS * within 110E to 160E & Equator to 30N * ⊙ PA4 to show up in next few days at the East of Marianas Is. (Details of the PA will be posted, when the issue of HAGUPIT is fixed) *NOTE: → Monitored or Spotted Potential Area(PA) is subject for ADJUSTMENTS or CHANGES due to the absence of the System actual Structure. → Pre-tracks is to guide or to have knowledge the possible path of the System, when it is seen or visible. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update ■ ※ As of Dec 02 ※ → Shows a slow transition of the focus of Tropical Activity from the Equatorial Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia and the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean. This movement in focus of cloud and rain is likely associated with a moderate to strong MJO event. → The risk of Tropical Cyclone development is also elevated. An active MJO over these longitudes at this time of year typically means an increased chance of tropical rainfall for Southeast Asia, Australias far Northern Tropics and the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. → Climate models suggest the MJO will remain active and continue to move eastwards reaching the Western Pacific Ocean by the end of the week. ※ Next MJO Update : Dec 09 ※ ~~~~~ °° Winds:1 kts = 1.852 kph ~ TD:139 kts °° Rainfall: 1mm/min = 0.0394 in/min = 2.364 in/hr °° Distance: 1 mi = 1.609 km ■ Satellite Imagery: GOES & NOAA Satellite. ■ Category/Intensity by World Meteorological Organization ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update by NOAA-ESRL ■ Thanks to NRL, CIMSS, NOAA, JTWC & WMO for PTU/PWS Basic Weather Forecasting & Pre-Forecast Tracking. © philweathersystem.weebly/
Posted on: Fri, 05 Dec 2014 14:36:16 +0000
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