WEATHER SYNOPSIS: ¤ Jan 16 at 0130pm ¤ ■ 1 Potential;0 LPA/s;1 Active;1 Threat ■ ☆ TODAYS FORECAST w/in PAR ⊙ TS 01W(Mekkhala/Amang) → near 11.5n 129.5e moving WNW to W slowly with 85kph (46kts) max winds within 130km radius on the Western & Northern Periphery from the center. (+/- 0.5 to 1° margin error) → A RECURVE & LANDFALL b/w CamSur & Catanduanes on 18th as TS or TD, & DISSIPATE on 19th. A NEAR MISS/LANDFALL OVER SAMAR still possible. → A MINIMAL IMPACT within the path of the System on both winds & rains. → It will be closely watch/monitor for possible changes or new developments occur. ☆ FORECAST IN NEXT 7 DAYS OUTSIDE PAR * within 110E to 160E & Equator to 30N * ⊙ POTENTIAL AREA(PA) 2 for next TC FORMATION to be visible b/w 21st & 23rd within the active ITCZ. LOCATION, TRACKS, & CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYSTEM will be released in next few days. It will be closely watch/monitor for new developments occur. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update ■ ※ As of Jan 13 ※ → The MJO is moving across the western Pacific Ocean and is likely to enhance convection over the Coral Sea and South Pacific this week. → Model forecasts for the MJO suggest it will weaken later this week and not be a strong influence on tropical weather. → The risk of tropical cyclone development will remain elevated over Australias northern waters and the far western Pacific Ocean while the monsoon trough remains active in the region. ※ Next MJO Update : Jan 20 ※ ~~~~~ °° Winds:1 kts = 1.852 kph ■ Satellite Imagery: NRL & NOAA Satellite. ■ Category/Intensity from World Meteorological Organization. ■ Coordinates, Movements, Wind Speed from NOAA. ■ Invest System info from NRL. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update from NOAA-ESRL. ■ Other Weather System from CIMSS. © philweathersystem.weebly/
Posted on: Fri, 16 Jan 2015 05:39:27 +0000
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