WINTER STORM OUTLOOK 6 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY...EXCLUSIVELY SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS COUNTIES POSSIBLY AFFECTED...POLK, HOWARD, PIKE, SEVIER, HEMPSTEAD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLDER TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS HOWARD, PIKE, SEVIER, POLK, AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF HEMPSTEAD COUNTY. IT APPEARS A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION MAY SET-UP BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING CLOSE OR BELOW FREEZING...WHILE RAIN IS MORE LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND IF THIS DOES OCCUR SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INTENSITIES SHOWN ON EACH AND EVERY MODEL IF TEMPERATURES DO INDEED DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS A SITUATION WHERE A DEGREE OR TWO WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIQUID OR ICE. LETS SAY IF ICE WAS TO OCCUR THEN ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO LOCALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE A HEAVY COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE DYNAMICS ALSO SUPPORT POSSIBLY THUNDER..SO THUNDER FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR IF TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...ISOLATED INSTANCES BUT STILL. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS...IF THESE TRENDS AND MY THOUGHTS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUE AN ADVISORY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. EXTRA INFO: THE REASON WHY I BELIEVE THAT A BRIEF BOUT OF FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR IS THE FACT THAT THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE...ONLY TO BE TRAPPED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TAKES PLACE. IF I NOTICED COLD AIR WAS TRYING TO OOZE IN FROM THE NORTH...THEN THIS OUTLOOK LIKELY WOULD NOT OF BEEN WARRANTED UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. INSTEAD...TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT, AND IF THEY DO NOT RISE IN THE MORNING THEN WE HAVE AN ICING SITUATION ON OUR HANDS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IF ICE OCCURS...UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. IMPACTS IF ICE OCCURS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DANGERS, SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GOOD NEWS IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. AGAIN STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. I MAY TAKE OUT OR INCREASE THESE CHANCES ON MONDAY EVENING.
Posted on: Mon, 03 Feb 2014 07:24:28 +0000