WTPA42 PHFO 300830 TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014 1100 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT EAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS...MAKING THE LLCC EASY TO FIND. CIMMS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SHEAR REMAINS LOW...AROUND 8 KT...CORROBORATING THE DECENT OUTFLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH ALL BUT THE EAST QUADRANT. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM CPHC AND SAB CORROBORATE WHAT SEEMS TO BE A SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF GENEVIEVE...AND WE FEEL THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE... CLOSELY FOLLOWING BAMM AND BAMS GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE DONE THE BEST JOB SO FAR WITH THE GENEVIEVE TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF A WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. THUS HAVE OPTED TO SIDE MORE CLOSELY WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...MOST OF WHICH INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. GENEVIEVE MOTION TOWARD THE WEST HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN AND THIS IS REFLECTED AT ALL TAU ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CAP GENEVIEVE STRENGTH AT ABOUT 40 KT AFTER 36 HOURS IN SPITE OF A LACK OF DEBILITATING SHEAR AND LITTLE OR NO DIFFERENCE IN SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MIMIC-TPW AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW NARROW SWATHS OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ENTRAINING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THIS ALONG WITH WARMER THAN CONDUCIVE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SEEM TO BE THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR GENEVIEVE DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH GUIDANCE OTHER THAN SHIPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 12.9N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 13.0N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 13.1N 151.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 13.2N 152.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 13.4N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 13.8N 155.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 14.3N 158.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 14.8N 161.3W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ FORECASTER POWELL/JACOBSON PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 08:30:27 +0000
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