WTUS82 KTAE 050404 HLSTAE URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 ...KAREN LOSING PUNCH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... .NEW INFORMATION... NONE. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM. .STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...OR 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4N...LONGITUDE 90.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST LATER ON SATURDAY. ON SUCH A COURSE...THE STORM WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. KAREN REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED AND HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE COAST. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. && .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. FLZ108-112-114-051200- /O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF- 1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 /1104 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/ ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. && ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 35 TO 40 PERCENT. THIS IS ROUGHLY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST FORECAST. ...WINDS... AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE. THE STORM SURGE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF KAREN...SO FUTURE CHANGES IN EITHER OF THOSE WOULD AFFECT THE STORM SURGE FORECAST. ...INLAND FLOODING... GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY. ...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF... NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAKERS OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY... INCREASING TO 6 TO 10 FEET BY SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION. $$ FLZ115-051200- /O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL FRANKLIN- 1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 ...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA. && ...WINDS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD INCREASE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO FRANKLIN COUNTY. ...TORNADOES... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY. ...RIP CURRENTS... NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAKERS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. $$ FLZ118-127-128-134-051200- /O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE- 1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 ...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA. && ...WINDS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD INCREASE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 3 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY. $$ GMZ750-770-051200- /O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. && ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL. THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 40 TO 45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...WINDS AND SEAS... AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 16 TO 20 FEET AS KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. ...WATERSPOUTS... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY. $$ For more information, go to middletnweather.info
Posted on: Sat, 05 Oct 2013 04:05:04 +0000
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