We continue to watch isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop mainly across the northwest half of North Texas early this afternoon. Weak forcing is coinciding with an uncapped and unstable atmosphere...as a subtle shortwave rotates around the southeast periphery of the upper high centered over Kansas. Surface mechanisms are absent. 20 percent probability of precipitation across the north versus 10 percent south remain reasonable per the weak upward vertical velocity/S associated with the aforementioned shortwave moving over the Red Valley. The majority of the activity should end after dark...though latent heat processes with near 1.75-2.00 inch precipitable waters could still lend to very isolated showers overnight and also brief heavy downpours with diurnal activity. With the high pressure center aloft remaining around 591-592dm on Saturday...a similar scenario regarding convective trends is expected again. It does appear some drier Lower-Middle level air will slowly entrain across the Red River late in the day and confining isolated convection along and south of the I-20/I-30 corridors Saturday afternoon. Increasing subsidence and drier middle level air will continue expanding south Sunday-Tuesday. The upper high will intensify to around 596dm while expanding expands east over the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley. Diurnal and isolated showers/ storms will likely be suppressed to our central Texas counties. From middle week through next weekend...the upper high expands further south and east across East Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. This will likely shut off deeper low level flow off the Gulf of Mexico across the Upper Texas coast and likely shut down even isolated rain chances. A bulk of the better onshore flow will be confined from the Texas coastal Bend into deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley...too far south to have any impact across our County Warning Area. Both high and low temperatures should remain near seasonal climatology with highs in the middle-upper 90s and lows in the 70s...except near 80 across the immediate urban areas. The Gulf of Mexico should remain relatively quiet this coming week with regard to tropical systems.
Posted on: Fri, 23 Aug 2013 20:41:26 +0000
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